Selections for $150,000 Seaway (G3)

Best Bets Comments Off on Selections for $150,000 Seaway (G3)

By Frank R. Scatoni, editor of The HorsePlayer Magazine.

THE RACE $150,000 Seaway (G3) Woodbine Race 8 (Saturday, September 1, 2012: post time: 4:51 p.m./ET; 1:51 p.m./PT) 7-furlongs on the main Polytrack (fillies & mares aged 3-year-olds & upward) What this race lacks in quantity it sure makes up in quality, with a nice field of five ladies assembled for this 7-furlong Polytrack affair. Which one of these Woodbine lovers will take down the lion’s share of the $150,000 purse? #1 TU ENDIE WEI absolutely loves the Woodbine Polytrack, with a terrific 4-of-5 record on this course—so that means you can toss her last three lackluster races that came at Saratoga, Belmont, and on turf. She also owns a win at today’s tricky 7-furlong distance when she wired the field in an overnight stakes last November. I don’t usually like the rail at 7-furlongs, but she’s tactical enough to get a good forwardly placed trip, and she should bounce back with a very sharp effort today. #2 ROXY GAP is a multiple graded-stakes winner that also loves this course. She’s 5-of-7 over this Polytrack, and her perfect in-the-exacta record at today’s 7-furlongs makes her the one to beat. #3 ZERMATT threw in a clunker over this course last November, but her Keeneland Polytrack efforts have been excellent. She ships in here from Saratoga for trainer Todd Pletcher, and she should take a big step forward while making the second start of her form cycle. #4 GOLD DUST LADY is 11-for-22 in-the-money over this course, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, she’s recently settled for a lot of slices and not too many wins. In fact, she’s won only once in her last seventeen tries over the last two years. She also looks to be outclassed, having been unable to beat second-level allowance foes and $62.5K optional claimers. #5 JENNY’S SO GREAT is a Grade Three winner that has two wins over this course, but she was just handled by ROXY GAP when they raced on the turf in the Royal North (G3). She’s also 0-for-4 at today’s tricky 7-furlong distance, so I think a minor award is more likely than the top spot against these. SELECTIONS 1. #2 ROXY GAP – She’s classy and loves to win. 2. #1 TU ENDIE WEI – She’ll love her return to Canada and synthetics. 3. #3 ZERMATT – Pletcher isn’t shipping in just for a cold Molson. LONG SHOT VALUE PLAY: #5 JENNY’S SO GREAT – She has to make up 2-3/4 lengths to the top choice, but I can see her hitting the board at a square price. WAGERING STRATEGY I’m going to keep it simple and exacta box the top-two choices of #1 TU ENDIE WEI and #2 ROXY GAP ($50 exacta: 1,2) BANKROLL PLAY $30 win #2 ROXY GAP; $15 exacta box #1 TU ENDIE WEI/#2 ROXY GAP (Bankroll at +$573.25 after Week Forty-Five Based on $50 Wagers)

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