TVG Analyst: Simon Bray
Trainer Chad Brown has won this race four times, including with #2 SISTERCHARLIE last year. The defending champ lines up in post 2 this year and looks to become the second two time winner of the race along with Ouija Board. Although lightly raced this year, she is a perfect 3 for 3 and is the deserved 8/5 morning line fav. It’s her race to lose. Her regular pacemaker or “rabbit” Thais, will go to the lead to ensure an honest pace for the late closing kick of her stablemate. To be honest, Sistercharlie would have won her races with or without her pacemaker. In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Thais was a non-factor as she completely missed the break and was unable to do her job on the front end. Sistercharlie still won. In the Flower Bowl, Thais got to the front went 12 lengths clear of the field and basically eliminated herself form the role in which she was entered. Sistercharlie still won.
Bottom line, Sistercharlie has won from off the pace, with an opening half mile ranging from 45 4/5secs to 51 4/5 secs. She is not pace dependent and is the most talented horse in the race.
If we concede the race to the favorite, let’s find a couple of prices to use underneath her. I’ll start with #8 CASTLE LADY. She’s lightly raced but is a Classic winner having won the French guineas in the spring. She was a solid second in her most recent start in the QE II at Keeneland behind a stablemate of the favorite. It wasn’t a perfect trip for Castle Lady as she was bottled up on the inside and it took a while for her to be able to find her stride. Once clear she just couldn’t reel in the winner who went uncontested on the lead. Castle Lady has looked tremendous this week and appears to be thriving coming into this race.
Mrs. Sippy must be respected. A G2 winner at Saratoga for Graham Motion in her US debut, she came right back to finish 3/4 length behind Sistercharlie in the Flower Bowl in a solid effort. She was clearly 2nd best.
Lastly #12 FANNY LOGAN has improved every start this year in Europe for John Gosden. She has yet to face the best fillies and mares overseas but is improving at the right time. She won her most recent start in an easier than looked effort. It’s Gosden’s only start at the meet and the fact he brings her is a huge vote of confidence for me.
#8 CASTLE LADY
#12 FANNY LOGAN
Money Back Special Pick: #8 CASTLE LADY
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