By Tom Quigley
$250,000 Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct
Race 8 (Saturday, December 7, 2019: 3:13 p.m./ET; 12:13 p.m./PT)
Mile and one-eighth on the main track (two-year-old fillies)
A terrific card is in store for Aqueduct racing fans on Saturday, with 10 races full of large fields and excellent quality. Let’s get straight to the analysis for one of the four graded stakes races:
#1 FIFTYSHAYS OFGREEN makes her first start against winners after a two-and-a-half length victory at Monmouth Park against maiden special weight company in mid-October. During the summertime, she was no match for #4 MISS MARISSA, who will go off at a price in this spot. Others look more attractive.
#2 MAEDEAN is a well-bred daughter of TAPIT that recently scored a five-and-a-half length victory in the Tempted Stakes over this track. Before that effort, she beat #11 WATER WHITE in a maiden special weight race at Belmont. This gal has gotten better with each and every start and has the pedigree to be a real runner. One to consider.
#3 GLASS CEILING makes her first start off the claim for Danny Gargan, who claimed this filly before she easily defeated maiden $40K claimers while sprinting at Keeneland. Gargan wins at 38% first off the claim, and keep in mind that last year he claimed TAX before he went on to win the Remsen (G2) and, eventually, the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. All that said, this is a massive bump up in class for this filly and she races around two turns for the first time. Won’t be an easy task.
#4 MISS MARISSA finished well behind in the Frizette (G1) on October 6. One month earlier, she defeated #1 FIFTYSHAYS OFGREEN in a maiden special weight. She may be a notch or two below the best signed on. Siding elsewhere.
#5 ALANDRA freshens up after a third-place finish behind next out Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner BRITISH IDIOM in the Darley Alcibiades (G1). It’s worth noting this gal was bothered at the start of the Alcibiades (G1) and was forced to close from the back of the field into slow fractions. Nonetheless, she made up ground late and completed the trifecta. In her only other race, she was a gate to wire winner in a Saratoga maiden special weight. She has more speed than we saw last time and this drop-in class should help her. Major player.
#6 CRITICAL VALUE won the one-mile Maid of the Mist Stakes against proven New York-bred winners by a convincing five-and-a-half lengths last time out. This is her first career start against open company, but her speed figures stack up with the other top contenders and she figures to get a good, stalking trip. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops aboard, too, which only adds to the appeal. Contender.
#7 JARA has never actually crossed the wire first. In her last start, she stalked the pace early, was bumped in deep stretch and finished a nose behind the unofficial winner, who was eventually disqualified for interference. Speed figures indicate this gal needs to run a lot faster to hit the board. Passing.
#8 I DARE U was a gate to wire winner in her lone career race, a maiden special weight at Belmont Park in October. That afternoon, she coasted on a lonely lead and never looked back. If she goes to the front today, there are other fillies with speed to keep the pressure honest. She sports a bullet workout leading up to this start for trainer George Weaver, who employs go-to rider Manny Franco for the ride.
#9 BLAME DEBBIE makes her first start for the Graham Motion barn after a three-length score in a Keeneland maiden special weight on October 6, where she went to the front and got a comfortable lead throughout. Another one that will likely have to deal with pace pressure this time around.
#10 DAPHNE MOON was a seven-furlong maiden special weight winner in her career debut at Saratoga. She returned two months later and finished off the board, beaten eight lengths by WICKED WHISPER in the Frizette (G1). She freshens up for this race and is reunited with jockey Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for this gal’s maiden win.
#11 WATER WHITE went off as the 4/5 favorite in her last start, a maiden special weight over this track, and won the race by a hard-fought nose. Now she faces proven winners and must overcome an undesirable post position. Will take a wait and see approach.
#12 LAKE AVENUE is a royally bred Godolphin homebred that blew the doors off her competition last time out, winning the seven-furlong maiden contest by almost 13 lengths. Being by TAPIT out of a STREET CRY mare, it appears this filly will be happy to race additional ground. That said, she draws the far outside post and faces a whole new ballgame as she now has to route against proven route winners.
1. #2 MAEDEAN - Last start over this track was as good as you could have asked for.
2. #6 CRITICAL VALUE - Ready for the bump up in class.
3. #5 ALANDRA - Class of the field.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#9 BLAME DEBBIE - First start for Graham Motion barn after big maiden win.
WAGERING STRATEGY - I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top three selections in exactas.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$20 Win: #2 MAEDEAN
$5 Exacta Box: #2 MAEDEAN and #5 ALANDRA and $6 CRITICAL VALUE ($30).
Bet the Demoiselle at TVG.com!
All information provided on this webpage is for informational purposes only. TVG makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of such information. You acknowledge that your use of the information obtained from this webpage is at your own risk. You agree that TVG will not responsible or liable for your use or reliance on the information provided, including if you make real money wagers based thereon.