$300k Longines Acorn

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$300,000 Longines Acorn (G1) at Belmont Park Race 8 (Saturday, June 20, 2020: 4:15 p.m./ET; 1:15 p.m./PT) One mile on the main track (three-year-old fillies)

The Longines Acorn (G1) has been previously won by trainer Bob Baffert four times while six other entrants in the race look to play spoiler for the Hall of Fame conditioner. Let’s analyze each runner, beginning with the rail post position:

#1 GAMINE gets back to one turn after a game win against next out Grade I placed filly SPEECH in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park. Bob Baffert trained daughter of INTO MISCHIEF fetched $1,800,000 as a two-year-old in training in May of 2019. Hall of Famer John Velazquez rides for the first time.

#2 LUCREZIA has finished first or second in five of six lifetime starts and posts a bullet workout leading up to this race. Last time out, we saw this gal finish second to SWISS SKYDIVER in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), who has since come back to win two straight graded stakes races at Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita. Definite contender.

#3 WATER WHITE has only raced once in a graded stake, resulting in an off the board finish. Speed figures indicate major improvement is needed for her to be competitive against this group.

#4 CASUAL broke her maiden at first asking for trainer Steve Asmussen before returning to win an allowance race at Churchill Downs. Daughter of CURLIN should only improve with more distance, which she finds in this race, and has earned speed figures that are good enough to be competitive with the rest of this field. Legit player.

#5 GLASS CEILING has improved steadily for high percentage trainer Dany Gargan, resulting in trips to the winner’s circle in her last two starts, though both races came against easier company. Will need to run a career best race to beat the best signed on.

#6 PLEASANT ORB broke her maiden two starts ago and returned to finish third behind the improving TONALISTS SHAPE. She is trained by Barclay Tagg and will be ridden by Manny Franco, who also team up in the Belmont Stakes (G1) with morning line favorite TIZ THE LAW.

#7 PERFECT ALIBI won the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga as a two-year-old and returned to finish second in the Darley Alcibaides (G1) and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She makes her three-year-old debut in this spot for trainer Mark Casse while racing for the first time in seven months.

SELECTIONS
1. #4 CASUAL - Well bred filly is just going to get better.
2. #1 GAMINE - Very fast and very talented.
3. #2 LUCREZIA - Lost to the leader of the three-year-old division last time.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#7 PERFECT ALIBI - Grade I placed at two.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll use my entire budget on a win bet with my top pick.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget) - $50 Win: #4 CASUAL

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