$200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Race 11 (Saturday, August 29, 2020: 5:21 p.m./ET; 2:21 p.m./ET) 7 furlongs on the main track (Florida-bred two-year-old colts and geldings.)
In this Saturday’s Affirmed at Gulfstream Park, nine Florida-bred youngsters sprint seven furlongs with a juicy purse of $200,000 up for grabs. Here’s my analysis of the field in post position order:
#1 GATSBY raced over a sloppy surface last time out and lost by a length to #6 BREEZE ON BY. That said, that rival is likely to go off favored in this race, meaning this guy wasn’t far off the one to beat today. That’s a good thing.
#2 FAMOUS GENT broke his maiden sprinting five furlongs on June 5 but has been well beaten in his last two starts, including last time out when finishing 10 lengths behind #6 BREEZE ON BY. Will go off at a price.
#3 FLORALA AL broke his maiden for a $40K nine days ago in career start number four. He makes his first start against winners for trainer Rory Miller, who is just 1-for-29 with his two-year-olds this year. But Al’s winning Beyer Speed Figure (62) is competitive compared to most horses in this race, which is a plus.
#4 BIG DADDY DAVE went gate to wire in his career debut on May 30. He’s been off almost three months since then and faces a number of proven winners in this race. That said, he broke his maiden in fine style and is conditioned by a trainer (Ralph Nicks) who excels with young horses (and trains three runners in this race). Wouldn’t discount.
#5 SEAZAN is the only horse that has won at this seven furlong distance. He adds blinkers today for Ralph Nicks, who wins at 26% with such a move.
#6 BREEZE ON BY is a perfect two-for-two to kick off his career. After an easy maiden win at 4/5 on July 12, he returned two-and-a-half weeks later to win the restricted Dr. Fager Stakes over #1 GATSBY on a sloppy track. Emisael Jaramillo rode both stablemates (#4 BIG DADDY DAVE and #5 SEAZAN) in their maiden wins, but opts to ride this guy, which is a major positive. Catch him if you can.
#7 TOP BOSS put it all together in lifetime start number four and pulled away from his competition for an emphatic seven length win against maiden $50K claimers. Sometimes horses who win a race finally figure out what to do, and if the ‘light bulb’ turned on last time. then maybe he can deliver at what will probably be a decent price.
#8 ADVANCE CASH ran fourth at 52/1 in his career debut and enters this stake as a maiden. He’ll need to improve to beat the best signed on.
#9 GREY DOM is the second runner in the field trained by Oscar Gonzalez. Son of AWESOME OF COURSE broke his maiden easily at first asking against maiden $16K claimers, defeating next out winner MIGHTY THOMAS. However, he earned a low speed figure against a weak group and is another that will need to pick up the pace to be competitive.
1. #6 BREEZE ON BY – Follow the jock.
2. #4 BIG DADDY DAVE - Maiden win was impressive.
3. #5 SEAZAN - Has already won at this distance.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 TOP BOSS – Improving Beyer Speed Figures.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
I’ll box my top two selections and longshot value play in exactas and use the remaining balance to make a small win bet on my longshot value play.
$7 Exacta Box: #4 BIG DADDY DAVE and #6 BREEZE ON BY and #7 TOP BOSS ($42).
$8 Win: #7 TOP BOSS
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