$200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes

Best Bets, Gulfstream Park Comments Off on $200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes

$200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Race 11 (Saturday, August 29, 2020: 5:21 p.m./ET; 2:21 p.m./ET) 7 furlongs on the main track (Florida-bred two-year-old colts and geldings.)

In this Saturday’s Affirmed at Gulfstream Park, nine Florida-bred youngsters sprint seven furlongs with a juicy purse of $200,000 up for grabs. Here’s my analysis of the field in post position order:

#1 GATSBY raced over a sloppy surface last time out and lost by a length to #6 BREEZE ON BY. That said, that rival is likely to go off favored in this race, meaning this guy wasn’t far off the one to beat today. That’s a good thing.

#2 FAMOUS GENT broke his maiden sprinting five furlongs on June 5 but has been well beaten in his last two starts, including last time out when finishing 10 lengths behind #6 BREEZE ON BY. Will go off at a price.

#3 FLORALA AL broke his maiden for a $40K nine days ago in career start number four. He makes his first start against winners for trainer Rory Miller, who is just 1-for-29 with his two-year-olds this year. But Al’s winning Beyer Speed Figure (62) is competitive compared to most horses in this race, which is a plus.

#4 BIG DADDY DAVE went gate to wire in his career debut on May 30. He’s been off almost three months since then and faces a number of proven winners in this race. That said, he broke his maiden in fine style and is conditioned by a trainer (Ralph Nicks) who excels with young horses (and trains three runners in this race). Wouldn’t discount.

#5 SEAZAN is the only horse that has won at this seven furlong distance. He adds blinkers today for Ralph Nicks, who wins at 26% with such a move.

#6 BREEZE ON BY is a perfect two-for-two to kick off his career. After an easy maiden win at 4/5 on July 12, he returned two-and-a-half weeks later to win the restricted Dr. Fager Stakes over #1 GATSBY on a sloppy track. Emisael Jaramillo rode both stablemates (#4 BIG DADDY DAVE and #5 SEAZAN) in their maiden wins, but opts to ride this guy, which is a major positive. Catch him if you can.

#7 TOP BOSS put it all together in lifetime start number four and pulled away from his competition for an emphatic seven length win against maiden $50K claimers. Sometimes horses who win a race finally figure out what to do, and if the ‘light bulb’ turned on last time. then maybe he can deliver at what will probably be a decent price.

#8 ADVANCE CASH ran fourth at 52/1 in his career debut and enters this stake as a maiden. He’ll need to improve to beat the best signed on.

#9 GREY DOM is the second runner in the field trained by Oscar Gonzalez. Son of AWESOME OF COURSE broke his maiden easily at first asking against maiden $16K claimers, defeating next out winner MIGHTY THOMAS. However, he earned a low speed figure against a weak group and is another that will need to pick up the pace to be competitive.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 BREEZE ON BY – Follow the jock.

2. #4 BIG DADDY DAVE - Maiden win was impressive.

3. #5 SEAZAN - Has already won at this distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 TOP BOSS – Improving Beyer Speed Figures. 

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

I’ll box my top two selections and longshot value play in exactas and use the remaining balance to make a small win bet on my longshot value play.

WAGERING STRATEGY

$7 Exacta Box: #4 BIG DADDY DAVE and #6 BREEZE ON BY and #7 TOP BOSS ($42).

$8 Win: #7 TOP BOSS

EXTRA VALUE WITH TVG4NJBETS

Don’t miss any of our great promotions. Visit our promos hub!


BET ON RACES LEGALLY

Not playing with TVG4NJBets? Join the #1 Operator in the USANew Jersey.


JOIN NOW

All information provided on this webpage is for informational purposes only. TVG makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of such information. You acknowledge that your use of the information obtained from this webpage is at your own risk. You agree that TVG will not responsible or liable for your use or reliance on the information provided, including if you make real money wagers based thereon.

Back to Top