Betting Guide
Belmont Stakes Picks
2024 Belmont Predictions
By TVG Staff
Updated April 23, 2024
The biggest three-year-old race of the year in New York is coming up on Saturday, June 8: the $2 million Belmont Stakes—up from $1.5 million. For the first time ever, the Belmont Stakes will be conducted at beautiful Saratoga, due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. With the move upstate, the race will be run at a 1 ¼-mile distance, the same as the Kentucky Derby.
The third and final jewel of the Triple Crown, the race is not only an exciting opportunity for the connections of the horses, but also a great opportunity for you to make money as a bettor. The 1 ¼-mile distance, which horses will have only tried if they headed to Churchill Downs to race in the Kentucky Derby five weeks before, makes it an interesting puzzle. And, the field of nine classy, young contenders means there are plenty of scenarios to consider while making your selections.
You are already doing the right thing by being here and reading about the Belmont Stakes. After all, horse racing is a game of information, and expert insight can help you make or refine your picks. A professional prediction can help your Belmont bets be the best they can be, and help make sure you see angles on the Belmont Stakes field that you might not think about otherwise. Read on to meet the Belmont Stakes field, our expert thoughts on the major contenders in the field, as well as suggested bets for the race!
Our Belmont Stakes Picks
The field for the 2024 Belmont Stakes won’t be drawn for another couple of weeks, after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are both run next month. Only then will we have an idea about which horses will be running in the third leg of the Triple Crown, and which one might have a chance of becoming a Triple Crown winner; check back then for a full breakdown of the field!
What to Look Out for When Deciding on Belmont Stakes Picks
We’ll have our own picks for the Belmont Stakes soon, but if you want to try your hand at your own handicapping, here is what to think about.
The Belmont Stakes is a grueling test of stamina and fitness. Even though the 1 ¼-mile distance at Saratoga is two furlongs shorter than the traditional trip for the Belmont, it is the same demanding distance as the Kentucky Derby. It is something most of these horses will never tackle again, unless they remain good enough to contest races like the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup. Thus, pedigree often provides a strong indication of who can win the Belmont Stakes. Most American racehorses are not bred to go the Belmont distance since American horse racing tends to focus on sprint and middle-distance races day in and day out, but some stallions prove year in and year out that their progeny are up to the task of such a trip.
The best example of this is super-stallion Tapit. He has sired four Belmont Stakes winners: Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality. His grandson Tiz the Law has won, too. Tapit has proven to be the best stamina merchant by strong sire-of-sires Pulpit, and it is no surprise when his descendants can carry themselves the Belmont Stakes distance.
Running style is another strong consideration to make when picking a horse in the Belmont Stakes. Many handicappers, particularly novice Triple Crown handicappers, forget that deep closers rarely win the Belmont Stakes. People love to play a horse who clunks up for fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont is very much a tactical race, and horses on the lead or in striking positions do very well.
Key Pointers for Predicting the Best Belmont Stakes Picks
Wondering about how to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Sometimes it’s about what to do, other times it’s about what not to do in racing as we’ll discover when making predictions regarding the favorite horses.
Don’t Look Exclusively at the Speed Figures
Speed figures are great when there is a level playing field and all the runners are experienced, but as sophomores, we don’t yet know how good all of the Belmont entries are going to be. With the race being run at Saratoga, take a look if any of the horses showed up at the meet last year, and how they performed over the surface. Finally, pace often provides good predictions for the Belmont favorites. Though closers often get a piece underneath, the Belmont winner is usually a horse who can either set the pace or stalk in range of the pacesetter.
Get a Visual Clue
Reading the current form of the runners is one thing even if you’re open-minded, but watching how a horse runs or at least reviewing a stretch run on video can go a long way to helping you make your mind up. Those trapped on the rail, ridden too far back early and/or finishing with a late surge can often have their performances upgraded as mistakes by trainers and jockeys at this level are rarely repeated. You can also get good visual clues by watching videos of the horse’s final workouts before the Belmont, as well as watching the simulcast feed to see how the horse appears in the paddock on race day.
Class Counts
The results of the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes help us out, but those are not the only prep races to look at for the Belmont Stakes. Recent Belmont winners have come out of quality Kentucky Derby prep races such as the Blue Grass (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Also keep an eye on late-developing horses, who maybe sat out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but won local prep races at Belmont Park such as the Peter Pan Stakes.
Find the Stamina
In 2024 the Belmont will be run at the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the Kentucky Derby: shorter than the usual 1 ½-mile distance, but still one of the longer trips in the horse racing world. Performance in longer races like the other Triple Crown races, or even long preps like the Louisiana Derby or the UAE Derby can provide a suggestion as to how much the horse may handle even more distance. Although shorter preps like the Arkansas Derby or the Peter Pan do less to reveal horses that will handle Classic distances well, a horse who is faltering near the end of one of these 1 ⅛ mile races may not want to get the Belmont Stakes distance.
To get an even better idea of how well a horse will handle the Belmont Stakes distance, look at their pedigree. Look at the sire’s record, and the record of the sire’s progeny, going a mile and a half, or at least distances of a mile and a quarter or longer. Look at the dam, as well, and the record of her foals and close relatives. Furthermore, it can be useful to watch how horses are handling the distances as they get longer into the Triple Crown. Are they losing ground, or looking like they are staggering? Or, are they gaining ground (preferably while already close to the leader) and running on with strength and confidence late? These will help you unlock horses who will run well in the Belmont.
Look for Value – But Don’t Go Chasing the Bigger Odds Without a Reason
If a firm Belmont Stakes favorite emerges and you aren’t convinced that the horse is the next Justify, don’t allow the odds to cloud your judgment and look elsewhere. However, you should also not be obsessed with trying to back an outsider. If you have a firm opinion on a certain horse and they are favored, don’t hold back. After all, horse racing is a game of opinions. Stick to your opinion, and bet them to win.
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If you don't win your first single-horse win betBy TVG Staff
Updated April 23, 2024
The biggest three-year-old race of the year in New York is coming up on Saturday, June 8: the $2 million Belmont Stakes—up from $1.5 million. For the first time ever, the Belmont Stakes will be conducted at beautiful Saratoga, due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. With the move upstate, the race will be run at a 1 ¼-mile distance, the same as the Kentucky Derby.
The third and final jewel of the Triple Crown, the race is not only an exciting opportunity for the connections of the horses, but also a great opportunity for you to make money as a bettor. The 1 ¼-mile distance, which horses will have only tried if they headed to Churchill Downs to race in the Kentucky Derby five weeks before, makes it an interesting puzzle. And, the field of nine classy, young contenders means there are plenty of scenarios to consider while making your selections.
You are already doing the right thing by being here and reading about the Belmont Stakes. After all, horse racing is a game of information, and expert insight can help you make or refine your picks. A professional prediction can help your Belmont bets be the best they can be, and help make sure you see angles on the Belmont Stakes field that you might not think about otherwise. Read on to meet the Belmont Stakes field, our expert thoughts on the major contenders in the field, as well as suggested bets for the race!
Our Belmont Stakes Picks
The field for the 2024 Belmont Stakes won’t be drawn for another couple of weeks, after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are both run next month. Only then will we have an idea about which horses will be running in the third leg of the Triple Crown, and which one might have a chance of becoming a Triple Crown winner; check back then for a full breakdown of the field!
What to Look Out for When Deciding on Belmont Stakes Picks
We’ll have our own picks for the Belmont Stakes soon, but if you want to try your hand at your own handicapping, here is what to think about.
The Belmont Stakes is a grueling test of stamina and fitness. Even though the 1 ¼-mile distance at Saratoga is two furlongs shorter than the traditional trip for the Belmont, it is the same demanding distance as the Kentucky Derby. It is something most of these horses will never tackle again, unless they remain good enough to contest races like the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup. Thus, pedigree often provides a strong indication of who can win the Belmont Stakes. Most American racehorses are not bred to go the Belmont distance since American horse racing tends to focus on sprint and middle-distance races day in and day out, but some stallions prove year in and year out that their progeny are up to the task of such a trip.
The best example of this is super-stallion Tapit. He has sired four Belmont Stakes winners: Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit, and Essential Quality. His grandson Tiz the Law has won, too. Tapit has proven to be the best stamina merchant by strong sire-of-sires Pulpit, and it is no surprise when his descendants can carry themselves the Belmont Stakes distance.
Running style is another strong consideration to make when picking a horse in the Belmont Stakes. Many handicappers, particularly novice Triple Crown handicappers, forget that deep closers rarely win the Belmont Stakes. People love to play a horse who clunks up for fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont is very much a tactical race, and horses on the lead or in striking positions do very well.
Key Pointers for Predicting the Best Belmont Stakes Picks
Wondering about how to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Sometimes it’s about what to do, other times it’s about what not to do in racing as we’ll discover when making predictions regarding the favorite horses.
Don’t Look Exclusively at the Speed Figures
Speed figures are great when there is a level playing field and all the runners are experienced, but as sophomores, we don’t yet know how good all of the Belmont entries are going to be. With the race being run at Saratoga, take a look if any of the horses showed up at the meet last year, and how they performed over the surface. Finally, pace often provides good predictions for the Belmont favorites. Though closers often get a piece underneath, the Belmont winner is usually a horse who can either set the pace or stalk in range of the pacesetter.
Get a Visual Clue
Reading the current form of the runners is one thing even if you’re open-minded, but watching how a horse runs or at least reviewing a stretch run on video can go a long way to helping you make your mind up. Those trapped on the rail, ridden too far back early and/or finishing with a late surge can often have their performances upgraded as mistakes by trainers and jockeys at this level are rarely repeated. You can also get good visual clues by watching videos of the horse’s final workouts before the Belmont, as well as watching the simulcast feed to see how the horse appears in the paddock on race day.
Class Counts
The results of the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes help us out, but those are not the only prep races to look at for the Belmont Stakes. Recent Belmont winners have come out of quality Kentucky Derby prep races such as the Blue Grass (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Also keep an eye on late-developing horses, who maybe sat out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but won local prep races at Belmont Park such as the Peter Pan Stakes.
Find the Stamina
In 2024 the Belmont will be run at the same 1 ¼-mile distance as the Kentucky Derby: shorter than the usual 1 ½-mile distance, but still one of the longer trips in the horse racing world. Performance in longer races like the other Triple Crown races, or even long preps like the Louisiana Derby or the UAE Derby can provide a suggestion as to how much the horse may handle even more distance. Although shorter preps like the Arkansas Derby or the Peter Pan do less to reveal horses that will handle Classic distances well, a horse who is faltering near the end of one of these 1 ⅛ mile races may not want to get the Belmont Stakes distance.
To get an even better idea of how well a horse will handle the Belmont Stakes distance, look at their pedigree. Look at the sire’s record, and the record of the sire’s progeny, going a mile and a half, or at least distances of a mile and a quarter or longer. Look at the dam, as well, and the record of her foals and close relatives. Furthermore, it can be useful to watch how horses are handling the distances as they get longer into the Triple Crown. Are they losing ground, or looking like they are staggering? Or, are they gaining ground (preferably while already close to the leader) and running on with strength and confidence late? These will help you unlock horses who will run well in the Belmont.
Look for Value – But Don’t Go Chasing the Bigger Odds Without a Reason
If a firm Belmont Stakes favorite emerges and you aren’t convinced that the horse is the next Justify, don’t allow the odds to cloud your judgment and look elsewhere. However, you should also not be obsessed with trying to back an outsider. If you have a firm opinion on a certain horse and they are favored, don’t hold back. After all, horse racing is a game of opinions. Stick to your opinion, and bet them to win.