2024 Kentucky Derby Top Picks and Selections

By TVG Staff

Updated April 17, 2024

Every year, the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most exciting and lucrative betting opportunities in the world of horse racing. The much-anticipated event will take place on its usual place on the calendar, the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, with the largest field of the year in American racing. At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge on May 4, but the one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $5 million purse (up from the $3 million of the 2023 Kentucky Derby!) and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

The Kentucky Derby is still over two weeks away, though all of the points races have finished and the field is taking shape. It is good to keep your options open until the draw, or even the day of the race. After all, post positions can boost or hinder a horse’s chances. A key pre-draw defection, post-draw scratch, or addition from the also-eligible list can affect how the race will unfold. A track bias that unfolds at Churchill Downs on race day or even Kentucky Oaks day can also have a significant effect on how horses will do, or whether their closing odds will be appealing enough to bet.

Through the week of the Kentucky Derby, we will update this spot with picks for the race. However, with the top Kentucky Derby points earners determined, these are the horses to keep a close eye on as they finish their preparations to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Kentucky Derby Live Favorites

Sierra Leone will be either the favorite or the second choice behind Fierceness, but as long as off-pace horses are getting a fair shake at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby week, this Chad Brown charge looms large. Though he just missed to Dornoch in the Remsen (G2) last fall, he showed good grit all the way to the wire, and he has been unstoppable in two starts at age three. His Blue Grass (G1) win was particularly impressive, as he made an eye-catching and unrelenting run from off the pace.

Among horses near the top of the market, the Kentucky Derby odds should be particularly appealing for Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom. With a significant amount of early speed entered, the Brad Cox trainee should be another well-suited to make a closing run if the track is playing anything near fairly. And, his jockey, Flavien Prat, has been one of the unsung stars of the Kentucky Derby: in six attempts at the Run for the Roses, he has won once and finished in the top three in five of those six outings.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

Fierceness will either be the Kentucky Derby favorite or the second-favorite behind Sierra Leone: he was the heavy favorite in the final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future wager and continues to take money in Las Vegas. When this Todd Pletcher charge is good, he is brilliant: he was an impressive maiden winner, a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and a runaway Florida Derby (G1) victor at Gulfstream Park in his final prep. However, he comes up flat about as often as he comes up brilliant. With 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby, there is a lot of room for chaos, and the Kentucky Derby odds board will not offer a fair price on such an inconsistent horse as Fierceness, given the potential for a flat effort.

Forever Young is taking a significant amount of betting interest in Kentucky Derby future markets. In a sense, it’s logical: the Yoshito Yahagi trainee is a perfect five-for-five coming into the Kentucky Derby, he overcame a distance much too short for him in the Saudi Derby (G3), and he impressed when he stretched out for the UAE Derby (G2). He is consistent, he knows how to ship, he can show speed, and he will love 1 ¼ miles. However, the past performances for UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby are grim, and the money he is taking in futures markets suggest he will be underlaid for his first attempt against a full field of top American dirt sophomores.

Kentucky Derby Long Shots

Honor Marie comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, and will have to turn the tables on winning horse Catching Freedom. However, the Whit Beckman trainee stepped onto the Derby trail with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall, meaning he has proven he can handle the footing. And, that victory came in the third start of his form cycle, exactly where he will be in the Kentucky Derby as well.

Encino started down the Kentucky Derby trail on the Tapeta at Turfway, winning the John Battaglia Memorial. He tried dirt for the first time in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, holding Grade 1-placed The Wine Steward at bay to take the victory. He is versatile enough to set the pace in a race or win from just off the running; expect the latter in the Kentucky Derby, with other colts like Fierceness and Dornoch showing so much early speed. He has an appealing pedigree for Classic distances on dirt, being by Nyquist out of a Bernardini half-sister to Street Sense, and he is getting good at just the right time.

Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

There is an old adage, “The pace makes the race,” so as the field gets clearer, make sure to check each horse’s past performance data and make a note of their running style. Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when the late run from Rich Strike won the day. As the field of Kentucky Derby contenders takes better shape, we will update this with information about how the pace scenario is likely to set up, and which horses are likely to get an advantageous setup.

Another thing to consider, other than pace, is how the horses are bred for distance. The Kentucky Derby is 1 ¼ miles, longer than most horses will ever run, and the Kentucky Derby winner is probably going to be a horse who has better than average stamina breeding. Since the advent of the points system in 2013, there have been fewer pure sprinters who have made it into the Kentucky Derby field since the most important points races are all at route distances. All of the 100-point prep races are either 1 ⅛ or 1 3/16 miles, which can begin to shine a light on whether a horse can handle the Classic distance or not.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on picks until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet for Derby picks is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.

Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.

How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.