Betting Guide
2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders Lineup
By TVG Staff
Updated April 16, 2024
We’re getting close to the 2024 Kentucky Derby, at which point contenders will take to the track in search of fame, fortune, and a chance to be immortalized in horse racing history. With an overflowing purse of $5 million up for grabs (up from the $3 million of previous years!), the winner of the race will also receive the iconic blanket of roses, cementing their place in the annals of the sport. For bettors, the Kentucky Derby represents an unparalleled opportunity to test their luck and skill, as no horse has ever tackled the grueling 1 ¼-mile distance of this legendary race with the largest field in all of American racing. Don't miss out on this unparalleled wagering experience and stay tuned for the latest Kentucky Derby odds and analysis to make informed betting decisions.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby is a new challenge and will have a huge field, meaning there is a lot of value in meeting the contenders and finding the overlays. After all, the last four Kentucky Derby winners have not been favorites!
Things don’t always go according to plan, though; there were major changes to the Kentucky Derby field last year. First, Practical Move came down with an elevated temperature after his gallop in the morning. Tim Yakteen then scratched him out of the Kentucky Derby, which meant that Cyclone Mischief got in off of the also-eligible list.
Thursday afternoon, Churchill Downs scratched all of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.’s horses due to safety concerns, including his Kentucky Derby entrant, Lord Miles. This opened up a spot for Mandarin Hero to get in off the also-eligible list as well.
Thursday night, King Russell drew into the main field after trainer Yoshito Yahagi pulled Continuar out of the Kentucky Derby, explaining that he was not satisfied with how Continuar was training.
Another horse defected from the Kentucky Derby on Friday morning. Trainer John Shirreffs noticed that Skinner had an elevated temperature, so he removed Skinner from the field. Without anyone else in the also-eligible list, this led to 19 horses running in the Kentucky Derby, leading to Mage winning the race last year.
When choosing a horse to bet, you can consider many factors: the conditions of the race, their form in Kentucky Derby prep races, how well their trainers and jockeys have done in the Kentucky Derby in previous years, and the horses’ form at Churchill Downs. Considering these factors and keeping track of the latest racing news on TVG will help you make the best bet!
Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+
Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.
Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders Profiles
With all of the points races finished, the Kentucky Derby contenders are beginning to take shape. These are the horses who have either qualified for the Kentucky Derby or are near the bubble of doing so, presented in order of preference.
In the Field
If the Kentucky Derby were to be drawn today, these horses would make it into the main field.
Sierra Leone (Gun Runner x Heavenly Love - Malibu Moon)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
In most Vegas books, he is either the favorite or tied with Fierceness after his impressive victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. That day, he proved he could close as smoothly against good horses on a dry track than he did over a wet one in the Remsen (G2) and the Risen Star (G2)—in fact, he looked even better. Though a lot of early speed would benefit his late-running style, his ability to sustain a big run puts him ahead of the plodder-type closers, and he seems to be getting better with distance.
Fierceness (City of Light x Nonna Bella - Stay Thirsty)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
The question about the juvenile champion is … which version shows up to the Kentucky Derby? If he gets a good start and can make the running, or even if he can attend close like he did in the Breeders’ Cup, he can make magic. In his final prep, the Florida Derby (G1), he did just that, setting the pace and winning by 13 ½ lengths. However, if he starts poorly, he may be done, so a bad post or just the vagaries of a big field will affect him worse than most.
Catching Freedom (Constitution x Catch My Drift - Pioneerof the Nile)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
A midpack-to-closing sort, he has won three of five starts and never run a truly bad race in five starts. He flashed his best effort year in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2), closing strongly into a fast-but-not-torrid pace to take the race by a length over Honor Marie. The more early speed in the Kentucky Derby, the better, and it may be worth watching to see how fairly the Churchill track plays to closers. But, the Louisiana Derby has been more and more significant in recent years, and he should have no trouble with the Derby distance.
Stronghold (Ghostzapper x Spectator - Jimmy Creed)
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
The Sunland Park Derby (G3) winner had a class question to answer in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), his final prep. Stronghold showed just that, outgaming odds-on Baffert favorite Imagination to snag a top-level win. That victory not only showed he had some class, but also showed he could really dig in against top horses, a concern after he piled up some second-place finishes in West Coast graded stakes. Stamina is a question, as damsire Jimmy Creed is all sprint, but his tactical speed and improving form weigh in his favor.
Resilience (Into Mishief x Meadowsweet - Smart Strike)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: TBA
It took him four starts to get off the duck, but since then, he has held his own: a fourth-place finish behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, and then a win in the Wood Memorial (G2). He was able to use his tactical speed to good effect despite a rail draw in a big field, boding well for his ability to handle traffic in the Kentucky Derby. However, the Wood has not been the best prep race in recent years, and even aside from that trend, there are legitimate questions about the quality of foes he beat.
Forever Young (Real Steel x Forever Darling - Congrats)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
He streaks into the Kentucky Derby a perfect 5-for-5, with three wins in Japan, a victory in the Saudi Derby (G3) at a flat mile, and a much more comfortable win in the UAE Derby (G2) at 1 3/16 miles. The 1 ¼-mile trip in the Kentucky Derby should be right up his alley. And, his trainer Yoshito Yahagi knows how to win big races in the United States: he won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with Marche Lorraine and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf with Loves Only You. However, Forever Young does have class questions to answer, and he will be a short price given the record of UAE Derby winners underperforming.
Endlessly (Oscar Performance x Dream Fuhrever - Langfuhr)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
This midpack type has been consistently good on turf and all-weather, with his only defeat in six starts coming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. His last two wins have come in stakes on Tapeta: he won a Preakness bid in the El Camino Real, and then thrashed the likes of West Saratoga and Seize the Grey in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). His form is good, but it raises concerns that McCarthy’s original plan was the American Turf, and the Derby dreams came later.
Dornoch (Good Magic x Puca - Big Brown)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
This full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage outgamed Sierra Leone in the Remsen last year, and began the year with a win in the Fountain of Youth (G2), sealing up his Derby bid. Gargan supposedly ran him in the Blue Grass to try to teach him how to rate, perhaps a smart move with the speedy Fierceness coming to the Derby. Dornoch … ran keenly and flattened to fourth, suggesting the front end is probably where he wants to be. He is fast enough to get there and game enough to put up a fight, but the question is how much speed he’ll have to battle.
Just a Touch (Justify x Touching Beauty - Tapit)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
He was extremely well bet in the Blue Grass despite his inexperience: he had just a maiden win and a second-place outing in the Gotham before that effort. In that final prep he prompted the pace and finished a crystal-clear second behind Sierra Leone, proving his quality. His tactical speed should be a strong asset in the Kentucky Derby. He has some stamina appeal: the female family is a bit more sprinter-miler, though sire Justify and damsire Tapit should pour some stamina into his bloodlines.
Track Phantom (Quality Road x Miss Sunset - Into Mischief)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
The longtime leader of the Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, he may be hitting the end of his stamina, as his form has been getting comparatively worse as the distances get longer. It’s not bad, per se: he was beaten less than a length by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and was only 2 ½ lengths behind Catching Freedom when fourth in the Louisiana Derby. But, he’s not the kind of horses getting better as distances stretch out, and he’ll have plenty of company up front with Fierceness, Dornoch, and more.
West Saratoga (Exaggerator x Mo Wicked - Uncle Mo)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
With 10 starts already, he has more seasoning than the vast majority of modern Kentucky Derby prospects. Though he hasn’t won a race since the Iroquois (G3), the very first Kentucky Derby points race in September, he has snagged enough underneath shares in further races including a second-place run in the Jeff Ruby and a third in the Sam F. Davis (G3). His tactical versatility is a plus, as is the fact that he is usually able to run a decent effort. But, his speeds are on the slower side and his race form suggests he may already be at or near his distance ceiling for now.
Just Steel (Just Steel x Irish Lights - Fastnet Rock)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
His 11 starts make him the most experienced horse still on the Kentucky Derby trail. Though he has yet to win a points race, he was basically this year’s Barber Road: the horse in Arkansas who kept showing up and snagging pieces. He ran second in three of the four points races at Oaklawn this season, and though he came up empty in the Rebel (G2) two back he was able to run a clear second behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby (G1), his final prep. He has an interesting stamina pedigree and on his best he could run along for a piece, though the fast race-slow race pattern he has going raises a concern coming off a fast race.
Honor Marie (Honor Code x Dame Marie - Smart Strike)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last year in the third start of his form cycle, he comes into the Kentucky Derby in the third start of his next form cycle. Though he disappointed by running only a belated fifth in the Risen Star, he moved forward in the Louisiana Derby by rallying for second, being beaten only by Catching Freedom. If he can take one more reasonable step forward over a track he has already proven he likes, this stamina-bred horse has strong longshot potential.
Domestic Product (Practical Joke x Goods and Services - Paynter)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
The second-stringer from the Chad Brown barn, he was no factor behind stablemate Sierra Leone in the Remsen but has put up two strong efforts as a sophomore. He was second to Hades in the Holy Bull (G3), and then stepped up to win a tight finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) the next month. The concern is, he has not run since the Tampa Bay Derby. The field he beat in Tampa raises class questions compared to the field he’ll face in Louisville. And, though trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz have won plenty of big races, neither has annexed the blanket of roses, and Ortiz hasn’t yet finished top-three.
Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser x One Show Only - Distorted Humor)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
His connections took a flyer in the Florida Derby, stretching him out to two turns for the first time in addition to putting him in stakes company for the first time. The gamble paid off, as he tracked the pace and kept on to finish a well-beaten yet clear second behind Fierceness. The waters get much deeper in the Kentucky Derby: the field is better, the distance is longer, and the pace he stalks may get quite sharp. He’ll also have to tap into his dam’s side for stamina: sire Catalina Cruiser was more a middle-distance type, though he is out of a Distorted Humor granddaughter of She’s a Winner (dam of Bluegrass Cat, Lord of the Game, and Dramedy).
Deterministic (Liam’s Map x Giulio’s Jewel - Speightstown)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: TBA
As of April 15, Deterministic had not been taken off the Derby trail for good but trainer Clement found an entry “unlikely” after his eighth-place finish in the Wood Memorial. To his credit he has shown tactical versatility in his two wins, but horses don’t usually win the Kentucky Derby off of preps as rough as he got in the Wood, and the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby is likely too much fhor his more middle-distance pedigree.
Society Man (Good Magic x You Cheated - Colonel John)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Rivera, Jr.
He did things a little backwards: he was eighth in the Withers (G3) three back, then broke his maiden two back. But then he managed to chase on for a clear second behind Resilience in the Wood last out despite the bettors sending him off at 106-1. He is improving, and he may get a decent trip behind the pace with several true speed horses being entered in the Kentucky Derby. And, he is by Good Magic out of a Colonel John mare with some route pedigree. Still, he has to run the race of his life if his Derby foes show up on the first Saturday in May.
Mystik Dan (Goldencents x Ma’am - Colonel John)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
He won the Southwest (G3) in blowout fashion over Just Steel two back in the Oaklawn mud. Just Steel turned the tables on him in the Arkansas Derby over a dry track and a longer distance, though, and he was losing ground late. Perhaps he finds more third off a freshening, and his pace versatility is another point in his favor. However, his pedigree is more miler-middle-distance than Classic distance, and he may have just freaked in the mud on Southwest day. In short, watch the weather.
Encino (Nyquist x Glittering Jewel - Bernardini)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: TBA
On paper he looked like a legit contender for a planned dirt debut in the Blue Grass, but his connections scratched him for the Lexington (G3) a week later instead. He took to dirt as well as his pedigree suggests he should have, setting the pace and holding off a bid from The Wine Steward, who was Grade 1 placed over the Keeneland course last year. His victory two back in the John Battaglia proved he does not need to set the pace, as well. He is getting good at the right time and should have some long shot appeal.
T O Password (Copano Rickey x T O Rachel - King Kamehameha)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
He cedes experience to everyone in the field: he has raced only twice. He broke his maiden first time out, and then upset the Fukuryu at Nakayama. That win gave him all the points he needed to win the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and punch a ticket to Churchill Downs. However, he’ll have to either improve a lot or change running styles to win like he won last out; he won the Fukuryu on the front end, but this time he’ll have to deal with the likes of Fierceness and Dornoch, who are far better than anyone he has faced yet.
Next Four Out
These four horses are looking for defections from the main field. If the Kentucky Derby were drawn today they would get a place on the also-eligible list.
Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo x Lilies So Fair - Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Jockey: TBA
He tried the Florida Derby in just his third start, though it was not his stakes debut: he did the dirty work up front and was fourth beaten less than a length by Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby. His sprint maiden win showed he could pass horses as well, and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. However, the fact that he was no match for Fierceness or even Catalytic in the lane raises questions about whether he is good enough if he gets into the Kentucky Derby.
Common Defense (Karakontie x Allusion - Street Cry)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: TBA
In five starts, his only win came in a maiden mile at Oaklawn back in January. He has grazed on Kentucky Derby points since, finishing a solid second to Timberlake in the Rebel but only finishing fifth in the Southwest before that as well as the Louisiana Derby after it. his pedigree has some interesting stamina lines in it, though, and if he can work more of a tracking trip perhaps he can make better account than he did after pressing the issue in the Louisiana Derby.
Epic Ride (Blame x Pick a Time - Gio Ponti)
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: TBA
He had not tried dirt yet until the Blue Grass, though he ran up a solid season on the Turfway Tapeta, including a minor stakes win and a second-place finish behind Encino in the Battaglia. He stalked the pace and chased on for third, outfinishing Dornoch but never looking a threat to either Sierra Leone or Just a Touch in the end. He is an honest sort, and he can clunk on for a share if he doesn’t make the lead, and has some interesting stamina breeding, making him interesting for spread trifectas or superfectas if he draws in.
Hades (Awesome Slew x The Shady Lady - Quality Road)
Trainer: Joe Orseno
Jockey: TBA
The winner of the Holy Bull, he disappointed in the Florida Derby, tried to punch his ticket in the Lexington, but came up completely empty and finished seventh, 19 lengths adrift of Encino. Whether it was the quick comeback or a general decline in form, it is hard to think that, if Hades were to draw into the main field, he would be able to find enough to bounce back into peak form for the Kentucky Derby.
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Kentucky Derby Contender Point Leaders
The road to the Kentucky Derby is over, and all the points have been earned. These are the top ten point earners from the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail as well as the points in which each runner earned their points. Even though the favorite does not always win, horses who run well in the Kentucky Derby usually ran well in at least one prep worth 100 points or 50 points to the winner, so make sure to consider runners with strong recent form.
| Points | Horse | Prep Races |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Sierra Leone | 1st, Blue Grass 1st, Risen Star 2nd, Remsen |
| 136 | Fierceness | 1st, Florida Derby 3rd, Holy Bull 1st, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile |
| 125 | Catching Freedom | 1st, Louisiana Derby 3rd, Risen Star 1st, Smarty Jones |
| 125 | Stronghold | 1st, Santa Anita Derby 1st, Sunland Park Derby 2nd, Los Alamitos Futurity |
| 110 | Resilience | 1st, Wood Memorial 4th, Risen Star |
| 100 | Forever Young | 1st, UAE Derby |
| 100 | Endlessly | 1st, Jeff Ruby Steaks |
| 75 | Dornoch | 4th, Blue Grass 1st, Fountain of Youth 1st, Remsen |
| 75 | Just a Touch | 2nd, Blue Grass 2nd, Gotham |
| 70 | Track Phantom | 4th, Louisiana Derby 2nd, Risen Star 1st, Lecomte 1st, Gun Runner |
Kentucky Derby Winning Horses
One of the things that can help you find a winner of the Kentucky Derby is to find out how other recent winners of the Kentucky Derby prepared for the race, who trained them, and who rode them. Noting trends in their Kentucky Derby odds can also help you compare a horse’s chances to how they fit within historical patterns.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby points system began in 2013; tracking the trends since that began provides a meaningful lens to what preparing for the Kentucky Derby looks like now. These are the winners of the Kentucky Derby since the point system began, and key facts about those horses:
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Major (50+ point) Preps | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Mage | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | 2nd, Florida Derby (40) 4th, Fountain of Youth (10) | 15-1 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Eric Reed | Sonny Leon | 3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks | 80-1 |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 6th, Louisiana Derby 1st, Risen Star | 26-1 |
| 2020 | Authentic | Bob Baffert | John Velazquz | 1st, Haskell * 2nd, Santa Anita Derby 1st, San Felipe | 8-1 |
| 2019 | Country House | Bill Mott | Flavien Prat | 3rd, Arkansas Derby 4th, Louisiana Derby 2nd, Risen Star | 65-1 |
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 1st, Santa Anita Derby | 5-2 (f) |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 1st, Florida Derby | 9-2 (f) |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 1st, Florida Derby | 2-1 (f) |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 1st, Arkansas Derby 1st, Rebel Stakes | 5-2 (f) |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Art Sherman | Victor Espinoza | 1st, Santa Anita Derby 1st, San Felipe | 5-2 (f) |
| 2013 | Orb | Shug McGaughey | Joel Rosario | 1st, Florida Derby 1st, Fountain of Youth | 5-1 (f) |
Frequently Asked Questions Regarding Horse Racing and the Derby
How many total horses can run in the Kentucky Derby?
Up to 20 horses can run in the Kentucky Derby. The normal starting gate at Churchill Downs can hold 14, but the track has a special 20 horse gate to accommodate the full field. It is an improvement over the auxiliary gate they used to attach to the main gate for the Derby, since it no longer leaves a larger gap between the 14 and 15 horses.
Even though only 20 horses can run, up to 24 can enter the Kentucky Derby, with horses 21 through 24 (based on points, and then non-restricted stakes earnings in case of a tie in points) placed on the also-eligible list. If one or more horses in the main field scratch before Derby betting opens at 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, May 5, also-eligible horses can replace them in the Derby field. If any of them scratch from the Kentucky Derby after betting opens, then the Derby will be contested with fewer than 20 horses.
Which lineages of Kentucky Derby horses are noteworthy?
Pedigree is important for the Kentucky Derby. There are very few races at a mile and a quarter are longer, and none of the Kentucky Derby runners have covered the full Derby distance.
One positive indicator is if a horse’s sire has produced a Kentucky Derby winner before. Active American-based sires with Kentucky Derby winners include Into Mischief, Lookin at Lucky, and Uncle Mo. Flower Alley and Bodemeister have also produced Kentucky Derby winners; they currently stand in South Africa and Turkey, respectively.
Sires who succeed in other Triple Crown races are also attractive in the Kentucky Derby, since Preakness and Belmont wins also indicate both stamina and top-class form during the spring of your three-year-old year. Tapit, notably, has sired four Belmont winners. Other active sires who have Classic winners include Constitution, Curlin, Daredevil, Keen Ice, Maclean’s Music, Medaglia d’Oro, Twirling Candy, War Front.
If you're interested in learning more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This site offers valuable information on all the excitement. Take a look to see how you can get involved before the big event!
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If you don't win your first single-horse win betBy TVG Staff
Updated April 16, 2024
We’re getting close to the 2024 Kentucky Derby, at which point contenders will take to the track in search of fame, fortune, and a chance to be immortalized in horse racing history. With an overflowing purse of $5 million up for grabs (up from the $3 million of previous years!), the winner of the race will also receive the iconic blanket of roses, cementing their place in the annals of the sport. For bettors, the Kentucky Derby represents an unparalleled opportunity to test their luck and skill, as no horse has ever tackled the grueling 1 ¼-mile distance of this legendary race with the largest field in all of American racing. Don't miss out on this unparalleled wagering experience and stay tuned for the latest Kentucky Derby odds and analysis to make informed betting decisions.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby is a new challenge and will have a huge field, meaning there is a lot of value in meeting the contenders and finding the overlays. After all, the last four Kentucky Derby winners have not been favorites!
Things don’t always go according to plan, though; there were major changes to the Kentucky Derby field last year. First, Practical Move came down with an elevated temperature after his gallop in the morning. Tim Yakteen then scratched him out of the Kentucky Derby, which meant that Cyclone Mischief got in off of the also-eligible list.
Thursday afternoon, Churchill Downs scratched all of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.’s horses due to safety concerns, including his Kentucky Derby entrant, Lord Miles. This opened up a spot for Mandarin Hero to get in off the also-eligible list as well.
Thursday night, King Russell drew into the main field after trainer Yoshito Yahagi pulled Continuar out of the Kentucky Derby, explaining that he was not satisfied with how Continuar was training.
Another horse defected from the Kentucky Derby on Friday morning. Trainer John Shirreffs noticed that Skinner had an elevated temperature, so he removed Skinner from the field. Without anyone else in the also-eligible list, this led to 19 horses running in the Kentucky Derby, leading to Mage winning the race last year.
When choosing a horse to bet, you can consider many factors: the conditions of the race, their form in Kentucky Derby prep races, how well their trainers and jockeys have done in the Kentucky Derby in previous years, and the horses’ form at Churchill Downs. Considering these factors and keeping track of the latest racing news on TVG will help you make the best bet!
Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+
Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.
Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders Profiles
With all of the points races finished, the Kentucky Derby contenders are beginning to take shape. These are the horses who have either qualified for the Kentucky Derby or are near the bubble of doing so, presented in order of preference.
In the Field
If the Kentucky Derby were to be drawn today, these horses would make it into the main field.
Sierra Leone (Gun Runner x Heavenly Love - Malibu Moon)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
In most Vegas books, he is either the favorite or tied with Fierceness after his impressive victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. That day, he proved he could close as smoothly against good horses on a dry track than he did over a wet one in the Remsen (G2) and the Risen Star (G2)—in fact, he looked even better. Though a lot of early speed would benefit his late-running style, his ability to sustain a big run puts him ahead of the plodder-type closers, and he seems to be getting better with distance.
Fierceness (City of Light x Nonna Bella - Stay Thirsty)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
The question about the juvenile champion is … which version shows up to the Kentucky Derby? If he gets a good start and can make the running, or even if he can attend close like he did in the Breeders’ Cup, he can make magic. In his final prep, the Florida Derby (G1), he did just that, setting the pace and winning by 13 ½ lengths. However, if he starts poorly, he may be done, so a bad post or just the vagaries of a big field will affect him worse than most.
Catching Freedom (Constitution x Catch My Drift - Pioneerof the Nile)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
A midpack-to-closing sort, he has won three of five starts and never run a truly bad race in five starts. He flashed his best effort year in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2), closing strongly into a fast-but-not-torrid pace to take the race by a length over Honor Marie. The more early speed in the Kentucky Derby, the better, and it may be worth watching to see how fairly the Churchill track plays to closers. But, the Louisiana Derby has been more and more significant in recent years, and he should have no trouble with the Derby distance.
Stronghold (Ghostzapper x Spectator - Jimmy Creed)
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
The Sunland Park Derby (G3) winner had a class question to answer in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), his final prep. Stronghold showed just that, outgaming odds-on Baffert favorite Imagination to snag a top-level win. That victory not only showed he had some class, but also showed he could really dig in against top horses, a concern after he piled up some second-place finishes in West Coast graded stakes. Stamina is a question, as damsire Jimmy Creed is all sprint, but his tactical speed and improving form weigh in his favor.
Resilience (Into Mishief x Meadowsweet - Smart Strike)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: TBA
It took him four starts to get off the duck, but since then, he has held his own: a fourth-place finish behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, and then a win in the Wood Memorial (G2). He was able to use his tactical speed to good effect despite a rail draw in a big field, boding well for his ability to handle traffic in the Kentucky Derby. However, the Wood has not been the best prep race in recent years, and even aside from that trend, there are legitimate questions about the quality of foes he beat.
Forever Young (Real Steel x Forever Darling - Congrats)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
He streaks into the Kentucky Derby a perfect 5-for-5, with three wins in Japan, a victory in the Saudi Derby (G3) at a flat mile, and a much more comfortable win in the UAE Derby (G2) at 1 3/16 miles. The 1 ¼-mile trip in the Kentucky Derby should be right up his alley. And, his trainer Yoshito Yahagi knows how to win big races in the United States: he won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with Marche Lorraine and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf with Loves Only You. However, Forever Young does have class questions to answer, and he will be a short price given the record of UAE Derby winners underperforming.
Endlessly (Oscar Performance x Dream Fuhrever - Langfuhr)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
This midpack type has been consistently good on turf and all-weather, with his only defeat in six starts coming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year. His last two wins have come in stakes on Tapeta: he won a Preakness bid in the El Camino Real, and then thrashed the likes of West Saratoga and Seize the Grey in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). His form is good, but it raises concerns that McCarthy’s original plan was the American Turf, and the Derby dreams came later.
Dornoch (Good Magic x Puca - Big Brown)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
This full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage outgamed Sierra Leone in the Remsen last year, and began the year with a win in the Fountain of Youth (G2), sealing up his Derby bid. Gargan supposedly ran him in the Blue Grass to try to teach him how to rate, perhaps a smart move with the speedy Fierceness coming to the Derby. Dornoch … ran keenly and flattened to fourth, suggesting the front end is probably where he wants to be. He is fast enough to get there and game enough to put up a fight, but the question is how much speed he’ll have to battle.
Just a Touch (Justify x Touching Beauty - Tapit)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
He was extremely well bet in the Blue Grass despite his inexperience: he had just a maiden win and a second-place outing in the Gotham before that effort. In that final prep he prompted the pace and finished a crystal-clear second behind Sierra Leone, proving his quality. His tactical speed should be a strong asset in the Kentucky Derby. He has some stamina appeal: the female family is a bit more sprinter-miler, though sire Justify and damsire Tapit should pour some stamina into his bloodlines.
Track Phantom (Quality Road x Miss Sunset - Into Mischief)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
The longtime leader of the Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, he may be hitting the end of his stamina, as his form has been getting comparatively worse as the distances get longer. It’s not bad, per se: he was beaten less than a length by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star and was only 2 ½ lengths behind Catching Freedom when fourth in the Louisiana Derby. But, he’s not the kind of horses getting better as distances stretch out, and he’ll have plenty of company up front with Fierceness, Dornoch, and more.
West Saratoga (Exaggerator x Mo Wicked - Uncle Mo)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
With 10 starts already, he has more seasoning than the vast majority of modern Kentucky Derby prospects. Though he hasn’t won a race since the Iroquois (G3), the very first Kentucky Derby points race in September, he has snagged enough underneath shares in further races including a second-place run in the Jeff Ruby and a third in the Sam F. Davis (G3). His tactical versatility is a plus, as is the fact that he is usually able to run a decent effort. But, his speeds are on the slower side and his race form suggests he may already be at or near his distance ceiling for now.
Just Steel (Just Steel x Irish Lights - Fastnet Rock)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
His 11 starts make him the most experienced horse still on the Kentucky Derby trail. Though he has yet to win a points race, he was basically this year’s Barber Road: the horse in Arkansas who kept showing up and snagging pieces. He ran second in three of the four points races at Oaklawn this season, and though he came up empty in the Rebel (G2) two back he was able to run a clear second behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby (G1), his final prep. He has an interesting stamina pedigree and on his best he could run along for a piece, though the fast race-slow race pattern he has going raises a concern coming off a fast race.
Honor Marie (Honor Code x Dame Marie - Smart Strike)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last year in the third start of his form cycle, he comes into the Kentucky Derby in the third start of his next form cycle. Though he disappointed by running only a belated fifth in the Risen Star, he moved forward in the Louisiana Derby by rallying for second, being beaten only by Catching Freedom. If he can take one more reasonable step forward over a track he has already proven he likes, this stamina-bred horse has strong longshot potential.
Domestic Product (Practical Joke x Goods and Services - Paynter)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
The second-stringer from the Chad Brown barn, he was no factor behind stablemate Sierra Leone in the Remsen but has put up two strong efforts as a sophomore. He was second to Hades in the Holy Bull (G3), and then stepped up to win a tight finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) the next month. The concern is, he has not run since the Tampa Bay Derby. The field he beat in Tampa raises class questions compared to the field he’ll face in Louisville. And, though trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz have won plenty of big races, neither has annexed the blanket of roses, and Ortiz hasn’t yet finished top-three.
Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser x One Show Only - Distorted Humor)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
His connections took a flyer in the Florida Derby, stretching him out to two turns for the first time in addition to putting him in stakes company for the first time. The gamble paid off, as he tracked the pace and kept on to finish a well-beaten yet clear second behind Fierceness. The waters get much deeper in the Kentucky Derby: the field is better, the distance is longer, and the pace he stalks may get quite sharp. He’ll also have to tap into his dam’s side for stamina: sire Catalina Cruiser was more a middle-distance type, though he is out of a Distorted Humor granddaughter of She’s a Winner (dam of Bluegrass Cat, Lord of the Game, and Dramedy).
Deterministic (Liam’s Map x Giulio’s Jewel - Speightstown)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: TBA
As of April 15, Deterministic had not been taken off the Derby trail for good but trainer Clement found an entry “unlikely” after his eighth-place finish in the Wood Memorial. To his credit he has shown tactical versatility in his two wins, but horses don’t usually win the Kentucky Derby off of preps as rough as he got in the Wood, and the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby is likely too much fhor his more middle-distance pedigree.
Society Man (Good Magic x You Cheated - Colonel John)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Rivera, Jr.
He did things a little backwards: he was eighth in the Withers (G3) three back, then broke his maiden two back. But then he managed to chase on for a clear second behind Resilience in the Wood last out despite the bettors sending him off at 106-1. He is improving, and he may get a decent trip behind the pace with several true speed horses being entered in the Kentucky Derby. And, he is by Good Magic out of a Colonel John mare with some route pedigree. Still, he has to run the race of his life if his Derby foes show up on the first Saturday in May.
Mystik Dan (Goldencents x Ma’am - Colonel John)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
He won the Southwest (G3) in blowout fashion over Just Steel two back in the Oaklawn mud. Just Steel turned the tables on him in the Arkansas Derby over a dry track and a longer distance, though, and he was losing ground late. Perhaps he finds more third off a freshening, and his pace versatility is another point in his favor. However, his pedigree is more miler-middle-distance than Classic distance, and he may have just freaked in the mud on Southwest day. In short, watch the weather.
Encino (Nyquist x Glittering Jewel - Bernardini)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: TBA
On paper he looked like a legit contender for a planned dirt debut in the Blue Grass, but his connections scratched him for the Lexington (G3) a week later instead. He took to dirt as well as his pedigree suggests he should have, setting the pace and holding off a bid from The Wine Steward, who was Grade 1 placed over the Keeneland course last year. His victory two back in the John Battaglia proved he does not need to set the pace, as well. He is getting good at the right time and should have some long shot appeal.
T O Password (Copano Rickey x T O Rachel - King Kamehameha)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
He cedes experience to everyone in the field: he has raced only twice. He broke his maiden first time out, and then upset the Fukuryu at Nakayama. That win gave him all the points he needed to win the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and punch a ticket to Churchill Downs. However, he’ll have to either improve a lot or change running styles to win like he won last out; he won the Fukuryu on the front end, but this time he’ll have to deal with the likes of Fierceness and Dornoch, who are far better than anyone he has faced yet.
Next Four Out
These four horses are looking for defections from the main field. If the Kentucky Derby were drawn today they would get a place on the also-eligible list.
Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo x Lilies So Fair - Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Jockey: TBA
He tried the Florida Derby in just his third start, though it was not his stakes debut: he did the dirty work up front and was fourth beaten less than a length by Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby. His sprint maiden win showed he could pass horses as well, and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. However, the fact that he was no match for Fierceness or even Catalytic in the lane raises questions about whether he is good enough if he gets into the Kentucky Derby.
Common Defense (Karakontie x Allusion - Street Cry)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: TBA
In five starts, his only win came in a maiden mile at Oaklawn back in January. He has grazed on Kentucky Derby points since, finishing a solid second to Timberlake in the Rebel but only finishing fifth in the Southwest before that as well as the Louisiana Derby after it. his pedigree has some interesting stamina lines in it, though, and if he can work more of a tracking trip perhaps he can make better account than he did after pressing the issue in the Louisiana Derby.
Epic Ride (Blame x Pick a Time - Gio Ponti)
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: TBA
He had not tried dirt yet until the Blue Grass, though he ran up a solid season on the Turfway Tapeta, including a minor stakes win and a second-place finish behind Encino in the Battaglia. He stalked the pace and chased on for third, outfinishing Dornoch but never looking a threat to either Sierra Leone or Just a Touch in the end. He is an honest sort, and he can clunk on for a share if he doesn’t make the lead, and has some interesting stamina breeding, making him interesting for spread trifectas or superfectas if he draws in.
Hades (Awesome Slew x The Shady Lady - Quality Road)
Trainer: Joe Orseno
Jockey: TBA
The winner of the Holy Bull, he disappointed in the Florida Derby, tried to punch his ticket in the Lexington, but came up completely empty and finished seventh, 19 lengths adrift of Encino. Whether it was the quick comeback or a general decline in form, it is hard to think that, if Hades were to draw into the main field, he would be able to find enough to bounce back into peak form for the Kentucky Derby.
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Kentucky Derby Contender Point Leaders
The road to the Kentucky Derby is over, and all the points have been earned. These are the top ten point earners from the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail as well as the points in which each runner earned their points. Even though the favorite does not always win, horses who run well in the Kentucky Derby usually ran well in at least one prep worth 100 points or 50 points to the winner, so make sure to consider runners with strong recent form.
| Points | Horse | Prep Races |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Sierra Leone | 1st, Blue Grass 1st, Risen Star 2nd, Remsen |
| 136 | Fierceness | 1st, Florida Derby 3rd, Holy Bull 1st, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile |
| 125 | Catching Freedom | 1st, Louisiana Derby 3rd, Risen Star 1st, Smarty Jones |
| 125 | Stronghold | 1st, Santa Anita Derby 1st, Sunland Park Derby 2nd, Los Alamitos Futurity |
| 110 | Resilience | 1st, Wood Memorial 4th, Risen Star |
| 100 | Forever Young | 1st, UAE Derby |
| 100 | Endlessly | 1st, Jeff Ruby Steaks |
| 75 | Dornoch | 4th, Blue Grass 1st, Fountain of Youth 1st, Remsen |
| 75 | Just a Touch | 2nd, Blue Grass 2nd, Gotham |
| 70 | Track Phantom | 4th, Louisiana Derby 2nd, Risen Star 1st, Lecomte 1st, Gun Runner |
Kentucky Derby Winning Horses
One of the things that can help you find a winner of the Kentucky Derby is to find out how other recent winners of the Kentucky Derby prepared for the race, who trained them, and who rode them. Noting trends in their Kentucky Derby odds can also help you compare a horse’s chances to how they fit within historical patterns.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby points system began in 2013; tracking the trends since that began provides a meaningful lens to what preparing for the Kentucky Derby looks like now. These are the winners of the Kentucky Derby since the point system began, and key facts about those horses:
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Major (50+ point) Preps | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Mage | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | 2nd, Florida Derby (40) 4th, Fountain of Youth (10) | 15-1 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Eric Reed | Sonny Leon | 3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks | 80-1 |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 6th, Louisiana Derby 1st, Risen Star | 26-1 |
| 2020 | Authentic | Bob Baffert | John Velazquz | 1st, Haskell * 2nd, Santa Anita Derby 1st, San Felipe | 8-1 |
| 2019 | Country House | Bill Mott | Flavien Prat | 3rd, Arkansas Derby 4th, Louisiana Derby 2nd, Risen Star | 65-1 |
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 1st, Santa Anita Derby | 5-2 (f) |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 1st, Florida Derby | 9-2 (f) |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 1st, Florida Derby | 2-1 (f) |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 1st, Arkansas Derby 1st, Rebel Stakes | 5-2 (f) |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Art Sherman | Victor Espinoza | 1st, Santa Anita Derby 1st, San Felipe | 5-2 (f) |
| 2013 | Orb | Shug McGaughey | Joel Rosario | 1st, Florida Derby 1st, Fountain of Youth | 5-1 (f) |
Frequently Asked Questions Regarding Horse Racing and the Derby
How many total horses can run in the Kentucky Derby?
Up to 20 horses can run in the Kentucky Derby. The normal starting gate at Churchill Downs can hold 14, but the track has a special 20 horse gate to accommodate the full field. It is an improvement over the auxiliary gate they used to attach to the main gate for the Derby, since it no longer leaves a larger gap between the 14 and 15 horses.
Even though only 20 horses can run, up to 24 can enter the Kentucky Derby, with horses 21 through 24 (based on points, and then non-restricted stakes earnings in case of a tie in points) placed on the also-eligible list. If one or more horses in the main field scratch before Derby betting opens at 9:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, May 5, also-eligible horses can replace them in the Derby field. If any of them scratch from the Kentucky Derby after betting opens, then the Derby will be contested with fewer than 20 horses.
Which lineages of Kentucky Derby horses are noteworthy?
Pedigree is important for the Kentucky Derby. There are very few races at a mile and a quarter are longer, and none of the Kentucky Derby runners have covered the full Derby distance.
One positive indicator is if a horse’s sire has produced a Kentucky Derby winner before. Active American-based sires with Kentucky Derby winners include Into Mischief, Lookin at Lucky, and Uncle Mo. Flower Alley and Bodemeister have also produced Kentucky Derby winners; they currently stand in South Africa and Turkey, respectively.
Sires who succeed in other Triple Crown races are also attractive in the Kentucky Derby, since Preakness and Belmont wins also indicate both stamina and top-class form during the spring of your three-year-old year. Tapit, notably, has sired four Belmont winners. Other active sires who have Classic winners include Constitution, Curlin, Daredevil, Keen Ice, Maclean’s Music, Medaglia d’Oro, Twirling Candy, War Front.
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