Kentucky Derby Odds
Saturday sees the wait for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby come to an end and with a clear idea of who the top contenders
are for this year’s Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, the betting is heating up fast.
The last five favorites have all won this race and so most of the attention will be on Justify, however a word of caution is that even future greats have come here without a run as a two-year-old and fail so he’ll need to be pretty good to get it done.
Audible, Magnum Moon, Bolt D’Oro and Mendelssohn have been popular in the betting
for what it is a competitive renewal with a potentially big pay off on the cards this time with even the “outsiders” looking hot.
The latest betting show for the Derby is below.
How The Kentucky Derby Odds Are Formulated
As of now, the Kentucky Derby Futures are based on the performance of the main contenders both last season (when they were two-year-olds) and more pertinently on this season’s trials so far.
On the big day in Louisville however the starting odds will be comprised by the Pari Mutual system, the final odds for each contender based on the amount of cash going in on each horse from bettors right around the country.
Put another way; should there be a lot of money in the betting pool (which there will be on Derby Day) and very few people are betting your horse then its odds could be huge! The flip side to that coin though has the possibility of a lot of bettors wagering on your horse and its price being really short.
On the Pari Mutual betting system, the odds will fluctuate a lot leading up to the race, never more so than in the few minutes before post time so be prepared not to know exactly what odds you will get on your horse until go time.
Who Has Been Winning The Prep Races?
The Road to the Kentucky Derby is a long one, starting way back in September and being fed these days by Europe and Japan as well as the USA.
The biggest points on offer though, and so with them the best chance of getting into the race, are presented in the below races:
Louisiana Derby (Fairgrounds, March 24)
Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher) just got home by a neck from Lone Sailor from a better gate and not too many think he’s the one this time.
UAE Derby (Meydan, March 31)
Irish based Aidan O’Brien’s Mendelssohn won this by an eased-down 18½ lengths meaning he is either a major superstar or this was the worst UAE Derby ever! It’s probably a little of both by the way and he has a chance; it’s interesting to note that in Europe he was the general 4/1 favorite at a time when he was listed as 7/1 in the States.
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, March 31)
Audible (Todd Pletcher) was a really good 3-length winner of this race from Hofburg (Bill Mott) and must be considered a real contender with his odds having dropped this week.
Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, April 7)
Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher) scored by three lengths from Kiaran McLaughlan’s Enticed who went off 5/4 favorite.
Blue Grass (Keeneland, April 7)
Good Magic (Chad Brown) justified favoritism but not by very much as Flameaway (Mark Casse) kept plugging on having been headed a quarter mile from the wire.
Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park, April 7)
It’s easy to see why this race has provided our favorite to this point, Justify (Bob Baffert) proving too good at 9/10 for this field when winning comfortably by three lengths. The fact that he beat 11/10 shot and previous Derby favorite Bolt D’Oro shows this is the strongest form on offer in the trials and Justify may even have more improvement to come yet.
Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park, April 14)
A horse wins as favorite either because it’s too good or because the opposition is weak and in the case of Magnum Moon (Todd Pletcher) here I feel it’s more of the latter.
Current Derby Betting Show
With up to 20 horses taking part the betting is bound to be competitive, currently Justify is the general favorite for the race on May 5th:
Bet The Kentucky Derby at TVG
Don’t forget – you can bet the Kentucky Derby right here with us online and our experts will be on hand to offer an in-depth analysis of the race leading up to post time on May 5. Don’t forget to check out our advice on how to bet the Derby
before you look at this year’s contenders.