Kentucky Derby PicksKentucky Derby Picks

Betting Guide

2024 Kentucky Derby Top Picks and Selections

Free Predictions

By TVG Staff

Updated January 22, 2024

Every year, the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most exciting and lucrative betting opportunities in the world of horse racing. The much-anticipated event will take place today at Churchill Downs, with the largest field of the year in American racing. At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge, but the one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $3 million purse and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

Picking a horse in the Kentucky Derby requires considering many factors like prep race form, running style, speed figures, pedigrees, and their connections’ success in the Derby.

The field for the 2024 Kentucky Derby has yet to be finalized.

But in the meantime, here’s a look back at the horses who stood out as great picks in 2023. These picks have been updated since the May 4 defections of Practical Move, Lord Miles, and Continuar from the field, as well as the May 5 scratch of Skinner. But, after the draw, these are the horses who have the right combination of form, running style, and pedigree to run well in the Kentucky Derby, making them our top picks.

This list includes their trainer, as well as the jockey named to ride them in the Kentucky Derby.

HorseTrainerJockey
MageGustavo DelgadoJavier Castellano
Tapit TriceTodd PletcherLuis Saez
Mandarin HeroTeronobu FujitaKazushi Kimura
Derma SotogakeHidetaka OtonashiChristophe Lemaire
Two Phil’sLarry RivelliJareth Loveberry



Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when Rich Strike’s late run won the day. In 2024, the pace looks very different, and our picks reflect that. There is less early speed than usual in the group of horses who lead the points standings four weeks out from the Run for the Roses.

This means that, particularly, when looking for longer shots, great picks will include horses who can show some tactical pace, or even be right on the lead. And, as for closers, there are many good closers this year, but it makes sense to look for ones who can adapt by sitting a bit closer, or who have already proven they can finish strongly into a modest pace.

These are the key picks for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:

Leaders

Though the trend of winning favorites that characterized the first six years of the points era has been bucked in recent years, favorites still do run well in the Kentucky Derby. They aren’t invincible: the likes of Country House and Rich Strike have made that clear. Even so, favorites still tend to run well, even in the years when the winner seems more chaotic. Thus, considering horses at a range of price points is a recipe for success.

  • Tapit Trice: He was defeated on debut, but has won four straight leading into the Kentucky Derby. He had shown some difficulty starting, but he not only got away better in the Blue Grass (G1) last out but also was able to overcome the rail draw, getting in the clear, getting a good tracking trip, and running down the pace-advantaged Verifying to score. He has both the talent and the grit to make his own luck in the Derby.

  • Mandarin Hero: He needed two scratches to get into the field, but he got them and he has made it where he belongs: in the Kentucky Derby. Based in Japan for the beginning of his career, he missed by only a nose to the proven Practical Move in the traditionally live Santa Anita Derby (G1). He should be able to get the final furlong, and should be able to drop in a few lengths off the pace from that outside draw and make a menacing run in the lane.

  • Derma Sotogake: The record of UAE Derby (G2) winners in the Kentucky Derby has been less than stellar, but Derma Sotogake gives the race its best chance yet to make an impact. Japanese runners have made a major impact in dirt races worldwide in recent years, and after setting the pace for so much of the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake has proven he can carve out a trip that has a good chance of winning the roses this year.


Longshots

Even in the years when favorites were winning the Kentucky Derby more often, long shots like Lookin at Lee and Commanding Curve were hitting the board. These are the contenders to invade the Kentucky Derby exotics at a price in 2024.

  • Mage: He is lightly raced, but after an impressive debut win at Gulfstream in January, he jumped all the way to the graded level. He flattened out a bit late to run fourth in the Fountain of Youth, but next out in the Florida Derby, he overcame a slow start, rallied to the lead midstretch, and was only overcome late by divisional leader Forte. He was previously much closer to the pace, and if he can revert to that style, he can get a very good trip on Derby day. He drew well in the 8 gate, he is well bred for more distance, and he should be an excellent price on race day.

  • Two Phil’s: Though he took his final prep in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway, and that was over synthetic, there are several reasons to be optimistic about him at a price. That Jeff Ruby victory came back fast. Furthermore, Two Phil’s is already a proven quantity over the Churchill dirt as he won the Street Sense last year, and his running style is tactical enough that he may not have too much to do in the late stages of the Kentucky Derby.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on selections until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.


Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.


How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.

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By TVG Staff

Updated January 22, 2024

Every year, the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most exciting and lucrative betting opportunities in the world of horse racing. The much-anticipated event will take place today at Churchill Downs, with the largest field of the year in American racing. At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge, but the one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $3 million purse and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

Picking a horse in the Kentucky Derby requires considering many factors like prep race form, running style, speed figures, pedigrees, and their connections’ success in the Derby.

The field for the 2024 Kentucky Derby has yet to be finalized.

But in the meantime, here’s a look back at the horses who stood out as great picks in 2023. These picks have been updated since the May 4 defections of Practical Move, Lord Miles, and Continuar from the field, as well as the May 5 scratch of Skinner. But, after the draw, these are the horses who have the right combination of form, running style, and pedigree to run well in the Kentucky Derby, making them our top picks.

This list includes their trainer, as well as the jockey named to ride them in the Kentucky Derby.

HorseTrainerJockey
MageGustavo DelgadoJavier Castellano
Tapit TriceTodd PletcherLuis Saez
Mandarin HeroTeronobu FujitaKazushi Kimura
Derma SotogakeHidetaka OtonashiChristophe Lemaire
Two Phil’sLarry RivelliJareth Loveberry



Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when Rich Strike’s late run won the day. In 2024, the pace looks very different, and our picks reflect that. There is less early speed than usual in the group of horses who lead the points standings four weeks out from the Run for the Roses.

This means that, particularly, when looking for longer shots, great picks will include horses who can show some tactical pace, or even be right on the lead. And, as for closers, there are many good closers this year, but it makes sense to look for ones who can adapt by sitting a bit closer, or who have already proven they can finish strongly into a modest pace.

These are the key picks for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:

Leaders

Though the trend of winning favorites that characterized the first six years of the points era has been bucked in recent years, favorites still do run well in the Kentucky Derby. They aren’t invincible: the likes of Country House and Rich Strike have made that clear. Even so, favorites still tend to run well, even in the years when the winner seems more chaotic. Thus, considering horses at a range of price points is a recipe for success.

  • Tapit Trice: He was defeated on debut, but has won four straight leading into the Kentucky Derby. He had shown some difficulty starting, but he not only got away better in the Blue Grass (G1) last out but also was able to overcome the rail draw, getting in the clear, getting a good tracking trip, and running down the pace-advantaged Verifying to score. He has both the talent and the grit to make his own luck in the Derby.

  • Mandarin Hero: He needed two scratches to get into the field, but he got them and he has made it where he belongs: in the Kentucky Derby. Based in Japan for the beginning of his career, he missed by only a nose to the proven Practical Move in the traditionally live Santa Anita Derby (G1). He should be able to get the final furlong, and should be able to drop in a few lengths off the pace from that outside draw and make a menacing run in the lane.

  • Derma Sotogake: The record of UAE Derby (G2) winners in the Kentucky Derby has been less than stellar, but Derma Sotogake gives the race its best chance yet to make an impact. Japanese runners have made a major impact in dirt races worldwide in recent years, and after setting the pace for so much of the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake has proven he can carve out a trip that has a good chance of winning the roses this year.


Longshots

Even in the years when favorites were winning the Kentucky Derby more often, long shots like Lookin at Lee and Commanding Curve were hitting the board. These are the contenders to invade the Kentucky Derby exotics at a price in 2024.

  • Mage: He is lightly raced, but after an impressive debut win at Gulfstream in January, he jumped all the way to the graded level. He flattened out a bit late to run fourth in the Fountain of Youth, but next out in the Florida Derby, he overcame a slow start, rallied to the lead midstretch, and was only overcome late by divisional leader Forte. He was previously much closer to the pace, and if he can revert to that style, he can get a very good trip on Derby day. He drew well in the 8 gate, he is well bred for more distance, and he should be an excellent price on race day.

  • Two Phil’s: Though he took his final prep in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway, and that was over synthetic, there are several reasons to be optimistic about him at a price. That Jeff Ruby victory came back fast. Furthermore, Two Phil’s is already a proven quantity over the Churchill dirt as he won the Street Sense last year, and his running style is tactical enough that he may not have too much to do in the late stages of the Kentucky Derby.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on selections until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.


Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.


How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.