Kentucky Derby PicksKentucky Derby Picks

Betting Guide

2024 Kentucky Derby Top Picks and Selections

Free Predictions

By TVG Staff

Updated March 27, 2024

Every year, the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most exciting and lucrative betting opportunities in the world of horse racing. The much-anticipated event will take place today at Churchill Downs, with the largest field of the year in American racing. At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge, but the one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $5 million purse (up from the $3 million of previous years!) and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

The Kentucky Derby is still over a month away, and the final round of preps has only just begun. A few horses have mathematically assured themselves a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, like Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Endlessly, though it does appear that Endlessly is going to bypass the Derby trail in favor of the American Turf (G2) on the grass at Churchill Downs the same day as the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby future wagering can shine a light on which horses are, at least in an early sense, expected to do well in the race. The most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, the fifth of six, closed on March 17. Sierra Leone, who won the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, closed as the favorite in that pool, with horses like Fierceness, Timberlake, Dornoch, and Japan-based Forever Young also taking heavy interest in the wagering. The final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool is open April 4 through April 6, and will provide further insight based on the results of the 100-point prep races.

As the race draws closer and the Kentucky Derby contenders become clearer, we will update this with Kentucky Derby odds and Kentucky Derby picks.



Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

There is an old adage, “The pace makes the race,” so as the field gets clearer, make sure to check each horse’s past performance data and make a note of their running style. Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when the late run from Rich Strike won the day. As the field of Kentucky Derby contenders takes better shape, we will update this with information about how the pace scenario is likely to set up, and which horses are likely to get an advantageous setup.

Another thing to consider, other than pace, is how the horses are bred for distance. The Kentucky Derby is 1 ¼ miles, longer than most horses will ever run, and the Kentucky Derby winner is probably going to be a horse who has better than average stamina breeding. Since the advent of the points system in 2013, there have been fewer pure sprinters who have made it into the Kentucky Derby field since the most important points races are all at route distances. All of the 100-point prep races are either 1 ⅛ or 1 3/16 miles, which can begin to shine a light on whether a horse can handle the Classic distance or not.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on picks until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet for Derby picks is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.


Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.


How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.

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By TVG Staff

Updated March 27, 2024

Every year, the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most exciting and lucrative betting opportunities in the world of horse racing. The much-anticipated event will take place today at Churchill Downs, with the largest field of the year in American racing. At a distance of 1 ¼ miles, every horse will face a new challenge, but the one who can endure and emerge victorious will claim a lion's share of the $5 million purse (up from the $3 million of previous years!) and etch their name in horse racing history. To help you maximize your betting potential, check out our expert Kentucky Derby picks and take advantage of this thrilling opportunity to win big.

The huge field and the huge pools on the race mean there will be live longshots and huge payouts—if you’re capable of making great picks. To dive right in, you can make all of the most popular wagers on the Kentucky Derby: win, place, show, as well as exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and stakes-filled multi-race sequences. It is the horse betting event of the year!

Live Derby Week Coverage on FanDuel TV+

Tune in to FanDuel TV+ for Derby Week coverage featuring live racing and analysis. You can watch the live coverage of Kentucky Derby on NBC. FanDuel TV will also be on-site at Churchill Downs providing comprehensive coverage, including the latest news, analysis, and handicapping insights in the days leading up to the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2024:

The Kentucky Derby is still over a month away, and the final round of preps has only just begun. A few horses have mathematically assured themselves a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, like Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Endlessly, though it does appear that Endlessly is going to bypass the Derby trail in favor of the American Turf (G2) on the grass at Churchill Downs the same day as the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby future wagering can shine a light on which horses are, at least in an early sense, expected to do well in the race. The most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, the fifth of six, closed on March 17. Sierra Leone, who won the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, closed as the favorite in that pool, with horses like Fierceness, Timberlake, Dornoch, and Japan-based Forever Young also taking heavy interest in the wagering. The final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool is open April 4 through April 6, and will provide further insight based on the results of the 100-point prep races.

As the race draws closer and the Kentucky Derby contenders become clearer, we will update this with Kentucky Derby odds and Kentucky Derby picks.



Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis

There is an old adage, “The pace makes the race,” so as the field gets clearer, make sure to check each horse’s past performance data and make a note of their running style. Horses with tactical speed often win the Kentucky Derby: unless, of course, the pace falls apart like it did in 2022 when the late run from Rich Strike won the day. As the field of Kentucky Derby contenders takes better shape, we will update this with information about how the pace scenario is likely to set up, and which horses are likely to get an advantageous setup.

Another thing to consider, other than pace, is how the horses are bred for distance. The Kentucky Derby is 1 ¼ miles, longer than most horses will ever run, and the Kentucky Derby winner is probably going to be a horse who has better than average stamina breeding. Since the advent of the points system in 2013, there have been fewer pure sprinters who have made it into the Kentucky Derby field since the most important points races are all at route distances. All of the 100-point prep races are either 1 ⅛ or 1 3/16 miles, which can begin to shine a light on whether a horse can handle the Classic distance or not.

Whatever flavor of bet you go for, remember that pro handicappers and once-a-year players alike should not put down their cash on picks until they are fully informed and know all the variables, such as the morning line odds, prep race results, and how the horses have been training in the morning over the Churchill Downs course.

Your best bet for Derby picks is to keep checking the news and updates on the Kentucky Derby contenders, make sure that the horses who looked good off of their prep races are still coming in well, and then look at the draws and likely pace scenarios once the race is actually drawn during the first week of May.


Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Kentucky Derby, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping before placing any picks

This race is run off of “level weights,” so handicapping in the traditional sense of weight carrying is not needed. All male horses carry 126 pounds; fillies would carry 121, but no fillies are expected to run in 2024. However, the Derby is a competitive field of three-year-olds, all potentially at their peak, and so it is partly about trying to make sense of who will actually reach a peak now, and what level that will take them to.

Here are some of the main things to consider when making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both race form and speed ratings are important, but over 1¼ miles, and in this high stakes of a race, the former is much more important than the latter, especially since none of the runners has tried the Classic distance yet. Speed ratings can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form.

Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? These are all crucial questions.

Post Positions

In a race with as big a field as the Kentucky Derby, being drawn too wide or right on the inner can be a real disadvantage. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. These are issues in prep races, especially ones with fields of ten or twelve or fourteen, but absolutely critical in the Kentucky Derby given its size.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the week of the race. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.


How to Pick Based on Breeding

As these horses haven’t reached their peak yet, we need more clues. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over long distances like 1¼ miles or even longer, it is a positive sign that the horses can improve with the extra ground.

Keep it TVG for Your 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Kentucky Derby. Take a look at the latest Derby odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers.

If you're interested in discovering more about betting with our partners, we recommend checking out the FanDuel Kentucky Derby website. This hub offers valuable information on the event, take a look to see how you can get involved.