Our very own TVG Talent is here to give you picks and insight on all the top races for Derby and Oaks Day!

Mike Joyce - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - Race 5, 12:36 PM ET

The Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile is a Grade 2 event for fillies and mares that offers a purse of $500,000. As the name suggests, it is contest at a mile on the Churchill Downs turf course, a surface all but guaranteed to be anything but firm come race day with local weather reports calling for rain. There are two horses cross-entered in the Modesty which runs Friday, but as of the writing of this article we can only confirm that Mona Stella will be scratching in preference for the Friday Stakes.

Wakanaka is winless in two starts in North America but both came over the (extremely) firm turf course of Gulfstream Park. Two of her last three victories came in races over heavy or soft turf course. Also, her Italian form was strong enough for Hall of Famer Bill Mott to enter her in the Pegasus World Cup Turf for her first start stateside. She should get some pace to run into (even with the likely defection of Mona Stella who cross-entered in the Modesty) and find footing more to her liking. Yes, she lost to rival In Italian in the Grade 3 Honey Fox last time out but In Italian had a lonesome and comfortable lead and Wakanaka looked strong finishing for second. A little pace and a lot of water should tip the scales decisively in Wakanaka’s favor at Churchill. But In Italian isn’t the only Chad Brown runner Wakanaka has to contend with, which gets me to…

Speak of the Devil is a head and a nose away from being a multiple Group 1 winner in France. Her resume was strong enough for her to fetch $2.2 Million at auction this fall and Peter Brant and Chad Brown have had tremendous success with European fillies. But she’s likely to be favored and she’s trying U.S. soil and sod for the first time. No doubt about her ability, but this may be the best day to beat her. There is some caution to be taken here though. It’s Chad Brown and Flavien Prat with a Euro-filly in a graded stakes. It’s easy to over-think these races. Sometimes the simplest approach is best. I’m taking Wakanaka on top but using the Chad Brown runners in exotics so as not to lose all chance.

In Italian has a very useful front running style and if anyone is going to steal this one on the lead it’s likely to be her. I’m fairly confident she’s the fastest filly in this race but she needs to prove it. She’ll have to battle Lady Speightspeare in the early stages but if she puts her away, she’ll have the lead and momentum at the top of the stretch. She also broke her maiden over a good turf course at Belmont Park so she can handle grass with a little cut to it.

Top Picks:

5: Wakanaka

8: Speak of The Devil

7: In Italian

Caleb Keller - Pat Day Mile - Race 7, 1:56 PM ET

To some degree, the Pat Day Mile each year is The Boulevard of Broken Dreams. Horses that were hoping to make the Kentucky Derby did not get their wish. So now most of these talented three year olds will compete in a Grade 2 named for one of the most beloved jockey in the history of Churchill Downs. These horses could progress to races like the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens later on this summer.

#10 Doppelganger- this bay colt got his name, because he is a spitting image of his champion sire Into Mischief. Even though Doppelgänger won on debut he comes into this race off three straight losses. That being said this is his best setup for a win since he started back in December. In the San Vicente and San Felipe Doppelgänger had no shot in behind the very fast & loose leader Forbidden Kingdom. Then the connections shipped to Oaklawn Park where he had a very stop & start trip throughout the Arkansas Derby. He finished 4th at the wire. This however looks to be a great setup. He is at a better distance and should be able to get an honest pace and clear outside running which is what he has been in search of.

#5 Jack Christopher- at one point this strapping chestnut colt was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. But due to minor issues he had to scratch from the Breeders Cup Juvenile and we haven’t seen him race until now. His 102 beyer in the G1 Champagne was one of the fastest 2 year old figures in the last 5 years. His stature is large and imposing. The bigger the horse however the harder it can be to get fit off an extended layoff. This undefeated colt could be a big player in summer racing.

#9 Trafalgar- this colt by Lord Nelson has already showed an affinity for the Churchill surface when he broke his maiden at this very distance back in October. He doesn’t have much early speed, but I do see him progressing up through the field for a minor share.

Top Picks:

10: Doppelganger

5: Jack Christopher

9: Trafalga

Gabby Gaudet - Derby City Distaff - Race 8, 2:48 PM ET

Happy Derby Day! There are some incredible races on the undercard for Derby day including the Derby City Distaff. It really all depends on how the race plays out and whether there is a slow or fast early pace.

I believe there will be a moderate to fast pace in here that will set up nicely for closers a.k.a. Bell’s the One. Looking back on the Grade 1 Madison, I believe it was a fast pace that collapsed in favor of closers. Just One Time got the best of the trip of all, making the last move into said fast pace. Bell’s The One, however, moved a little too soon and her impressive closing kick fizzled out before she got to the finish line. If my assessment is right about the pace in the Madison, then Kimari must be also respected because she held on very well despite being part of that fast pace. I did actually pick Center Aisle in the Madison, and unfortunately she had a brutal break, especially considering her front-running style. As for the horses that didn’t compete in the Madison, I prefer Obligatory. The best race of her career was her last race and that was her first time over a wet racetrack. She is another closer in this race but I prefer Bell’s the One and Just One Time when comparing all the closers. Edgeway will be a shorter price in here and I’m a bit against her. The last time she was at Churchill was in 2020 when competing in the Grade 3 Dogwood, in which she finished second. I think this race came up MUCH tougher than that race and I also think she’s better at six furlongs versus seven furlongs. I’m also not sure she does her best running on a wet track. The weather forecast predicts it to be a sloppy mess come Friday. In conclusion, the play is Bell’s the One on top. She competed in this race last year when Gamine was the controlling speed, and the dynamics of this race are completely different this year. I’ll key her in an exacta with Just One Time, Center Aisle, Kimari and Obligatory underneath.

Top Picks:

6: Bell’s the One

2: Just One Time

3: Center Aisle

Simon Bray - American Turf - Race 9, 3:40 PM ET

With $500,000 up for grabs here in The American Turf, this race is always a deep competitive event for 3yos on the grass. No exception this year with a solid group headlined by the undefeated Sy Dog (#7). The biggest issue for handicappers though might be the weather. As I write this at the beginning of Derby week, the forecast is for an 85% chance of rain on Friday and 40% chance on Saturday. If those predictions come true, the turf course will become a test of the ability to handle soft conditions. While a few of the runners have handled a “good” turf course in the past, Saturday could be much softer. With that in mind i like Balnikhov (#5), the former European based runner now trained in California by trainer Phil D’Amato. He has proven form on soft turf in France last year and comes in off a good US debut finishing 2nd behind a useful Richard Mandella runner. Balnikhov was slow away from the gate, saved ground and just came up a nose short. It was a good effort for his US debut. Expect a nice move forward in his 2nd US start on Saturday. Sy Dog the probable favorite remained undefeated with a nice win at Keeneland in the Transylvania. It was his first start in 6 months over a good turf course, he railed wide and got up for the win. Expect another move forward. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race three times, and sends pot Portfolio Company (#6) who is making his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November. The layoff is not a concern for they barn, as they always come fit off the bench. He won his debut on rain softened turf, so hopefully he can handle the conditions Saturday. The bigger issue for him is race shape. He likes to lay close to the pace where it looks like he will get company who could soften him up. Stolen Base (#12) is the price and could be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown. He will sit far back and come running late hoping to pass tired front runners. He gets the benefit of Flavien Prat in the saddle.

Top Picks:

5: Balnikhov

7: Sy Dog

9: Stolen Base

Britney Eurton - Churchill Downs S. - Race 10, 4:31 PM ET

The G1 Churchill Downs Stakes will be one of the most highly anticipated races on the Kentucky Derby undercard. It's the rematch of breeders’ cup sprint winner, Aloha West, and Eclipse Award Champion, Jackie's Warrior. There are a myriad of reasons why this race, in particular, is a unique and intriguing one for the bettor — the distance of 7 furlongs, affinity for Churchill, and the possibility of an off-track.

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, Aloha West, holds the edge for me. Brilliantly campaigned last year by Wayne Catalano and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, he peaked at exactly the right time. The biggest question, for many, is whether or not that race was a fluke. The G1 Churchill Downs Stakes marks his seasonal debut, and by all accounts, he’s “fired up” and “ready to go” per his connections. He’s reportedly working off the charts, runs well fresh, has no problem with the 7 furlong distance, and should benefit from what appears to be a fairly contested pace scenario. He drew the rail, but with his running style and long run into the far turn, I don't see this as any issue. All of this adds up to what could be another Grade 1 win for the ‘Cat Man’ and his Breeders’ Cup champ.

To run behind him, I wanted to find a decent price. I think Jackie’s Warrior is vulnerable here (more on that to come), so rounding out the exacta for me will be up and comer, Prevalence, for trainer Brendan Walsh. He’s a horse that’s seemingly improved in his four-year-old year and gave a nice account of himself last out in the G3 commonwealth at Keeneland. Make note, that was over a sloppy track and we very well could have an off track come Saturday with heavy rain in the forecast. His ability to rate will be key here with so much pace signed on up front and his outside post will allow Gaffalione to play the break as he sees fit. A nice price for a horse that could be sitting on a peak performance.

Now, I'd be silly to not include Jackie's Warrior in the top three. He's a multiple Grade 1 winner and reigning Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Sprinter. That being said, I was a bit underwhelmed by his four-year-old debut in the Count Fleet Handicap. He set the pace that day, much like he always does, got a fairly uncontested lead by the half mile pole, and saw a margin of victory cut down late to 3/4 of a length. There's no doubt, Rosario was easing up on him, leaving more in the tank for the next race, but he should’ve been a bit more authoritative in that win against the level of competition. That race aside, he might be up against it from a pace standpoint. There's plenty of other speed signed on here, and as he showed in the G1 Woody Stephens, he doesn’t love to be pressed. He's a talented sprinter, and has the resume to prove it, but I'm going to try and beat him.

Best of luck with all your wagers on Kentucky Derby Day!

Top Picks:

1: Aloha West

6: Prevalence

3: Jackie’s Warrior

Simon Bray - Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic - Race 11, 5:27 PM ET

As I mentioned earlier in my analysis of The American Turf, weather will be X factor for handicapping on Saturday with severe rain forecast Friday and some potential rain on Saturday. At least in this event we have several of the 10 runners with prior experience on not only good but soft and heavy ground. Trainer Chad Brown who has won the last three runnings of this race, saddles 3 of the !0 runners who with proven form on soft or heavy ground. Adhamo (#8) a former G3 winner and G2 placed horse in France made his US debut at the Fair Grounds. It was a huge effort rallying from far back to just miss by a head coming home the last quarter mile quicker than any of his 10 rivals. He moves forward in a big way Saturday as he has had plenty of time to recover from that huge effort. He is als0 proven on soft turf against some decent European competition. He should make it 4 in a row for Chad. Public Sector (#3) and Tribhuvan (#4) his two other runners are not without a chance. The former hasn’t run since November and tries older horses for the first time, and the latter comes in off a poor performance in the Breeders Cup last Fall. All three have contrasting running styles: Tribhuvan a pace setter, Public Sector a stalker and Adhamo a closer. Ivar (#1) scratched out of the Makers Mile in favor of this spot. He ran a disappointing race in this event last year but went to the sidelines after, suggesting something was amiss, although his best efforts seem to be at a mile rather than this nine furlong trip. Shirl’s Speight (#6) seems to be on an improving trend with a nice win at Tampa last out but soft turf is the question mark though. Santin (#10) adds blinkers and is lightly raced and has room to improve for trainer Brendan Walsh. His race just behind Adhamo in Louisiana puts him in the mix.

Top Picks:

8: Adhamo

10: Santin

4: Tribhuvan

Todd Schrupp - Kentucky Derby - Race 12, 6:57 PM ET

When the field of 20 Three-Year-Olds moves into the Starting Gate for the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 7th it will officially be Six Weeks straight that I’ve been traveling for TVG following most of the significant players in this year’s Triple Crown. While this represents a personal record for my longest trip at TVG, most importantly it has given me an up-close look and I believe a unique perspective on who has the best chance to win this year’s ‘Run for the Roses’. Based on my personal observations during this sojourn and talking to the connections, here are my Top Three selections in order of preference:

#10 Zandon - His win in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland was visually the most impressive Prep Race win of the Season. The acceleration he showed out of the final turn is how traditionally the Kentucky Derby has been won. Over the last 10 years a majority of the Kentucky Derby winners have been no further back than 3 lengths of the lead turning for Home, this has been a major departure from years prior. Zandon will turn back the clock to a time where horses with his running style and ability to overcome trouble were the most reliable prospects to win this race. In talking to his Trainer Chad Brown his confidence level in this horse is almost ‘Ruthian’ like, in that he expects to win. And a win by Zandon in the Kentucky Derby will not only give Chad Brown his first Kentucky Derby victory, it will turn the tables on Epicenter who may have been lucky to beat him in the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds.

#3 Epicenter - No horse has had a better Spring than Epicenter. He not only improved race to race, but he showed versatility; leading gate to wire in the Risen Star, then returning to win from off the pace in the Louisiana Derby. However, what’s more astonishing is his Form lines. Consider this fact when looking at some of the major prep races this year for the Kentucky Derby: the winners of the Arkansas Derby, Toyota Bluegrass Stakes, and the Stone Street Lexington all lost to Epicenter before their breakthrough wins. Form lines mean a lot when handicapping the Kentucky Derby and Epicenter goes into the race having shown he can beat Three of his serious rivals. And just like Trainer Chad Brown, Trainer Steve Asmussen has never won the Kentucky Derby despite having won just about every major race in the Sport.

#8 Charge It - He is the very definition of a ‘High Ceiling’ when it comes to judging his potential. He finished a very green second in the Florida Derby. He lost to White Abarrio that day and showed he has much more to give, and could easily best his FL rival this time. Whether that’s good enough to move forward and beat horses like Zandon and Epicenter is purely a speculative play. Making him a Money Back Special Play consideration.

I hope you have a profitable Kentucky Derby, but mostly I hope you enjoy one of the greatest spectacles in all of Sport, the Kentucky Derby. I know I have enjoyed being a part of TVG’s coverage of the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’. Let’s get the Winner Home, and then it will be time for me to go Home.

Top Picks:

10: Zandon

3: Epicenter

8: Charge It

Money Back Special: #8 Charge It

Kurt Hoover - Modesty - Race 5, 12:43 PM ET

The Grade 3 Modesty Stakes brings together a very competitive field of nine older fillies and mares. From a pace standpoint there appears to be very little, true early speed. The two morning line favorites, Bleecker Street and Fluffy Socks, are both deep closers. I think that Curly Ruth, 6-1 on the morning line, should get an ideal trip. Stand Tall and Mona Stella, two longshots drawn towards the inside both have some speed. Curly Ruth should be able to track those two, and then take over when the real racing begins. She comes off a solid win in an allowance prep at Keeneland, and with her pedigree the added distance should be right up her alley. She Can't Sing, 8-1 on the morning line, comes off two impressive stakes wins at the Fairgrounds, both at big odds. She appears to be a mare on the way up, who's found her best game going long on the turf. She also has enough tactical speed to be fairly close early. No knocks on the undefeated morning line favorite Bleecker Street. She has yet to be in a photo, and her numbers keep improving. Steady work tab since her last and Flavien Prat takes over. Just think she might be vulnerable because of the race shape. A very good race for some nice fillies and mares.

Top Picks:

7: Curly Ruth

4: She Can't Sing

8: Bleecker Street

Money Back Special: #7 Curly Ruth

Rich Perloff - La Troienne - Race 6, 1:26 PM ET

It’s very difficult to get away from the favorites in this year’s La Troienne S. (G1) at Churchill Downs.

PAULINE’S PEARL, the second choice on the morning line at 2/1, exits the same race - the Grade 2 Azeri S. at Oaklawn Park - as morning line favorite and defending champion SHEDARESTHEDEVIL. PAULINE closed for 2nd behind Eclipse Award winner CE CE in the Oaklawn race, and she gets a 5-pound pull in the weights relative to SHEDARESTHEDEVIL. PAULINE didn’t make much of an impact in last year’s Kentucky Oaks in her only prior try at Churchill, but she appears to have improved considerably since for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

SHEDARESTHEDEVIL, the defending champion in the La Troienne (and already a three-time Grade 1 winner), is following the same blueprint she did in 2021, using the Azeri S. (G2) at Oaklawn as a stepping stone to the La Troienne. She won the Azeri in 2021, and had to settle for third this year, but it was a solid seasonal debut, and she looms the horse to beat for the always-potent trainer-jockey combo of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux.

After the obvious top two, the pickings get pretty slim. If you’re looking for an underneath horse for vertical exotics, maybe it’s the mare on the rail, JILTED BRIDE. You certainly can’t fault her consistency: she’s never been off the board in 16 career starts. But she’s never beaten anything like the favorites here, and she has never managed better than a 3rd place finish in her tries vs. stakes competition.

Top Picks:

6: PAULINE’S PEARL

2: SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

1: JILTED BRIDE

Money Back Special: #1 JILTED BRIDE

Joaquin Jaime - Alysheba - Race 7, 2:09 PM ET

The Alysheba Stakes is race 7 on Oaks Day and begins an All-Stakes Pick 5. A field of eight has entered with Olympiad, one of the up and comers in the handicap division, installed as the 9/5 ML favorite. Two others in the field won the same Grade One race the last two years, but both horses come in off layoffs.

Max Player won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last year and makes his 5-year-old debut for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher will saddle the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner, Happy Saver.

Olympiad #5: This lightly raced 4-year-old has been brought along slowly by Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Since returning off a year layoff last September, Olympiad has had six races. Three were versus allowance company and the other three he faced graded stakes company. He’s finally starting to step up his game rattling off three straight wins and nearly equalling the track record at the Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Classic (G2). He’s’ sharp, has the pace advantage, is 2-for-2 at the distance, and has the fitness edge on the other Grade One winners.

Weyburn #2: He came back with a very nice performance off a six month layoff at Gulfstream Park going seven furlongs. The distance is short of his best but considering it had been a long time since he raced, I really thought he put forth a solid effort. He closed out his 3-year-old season facing the top horses in the division at the time, so I’m not going to be too hard on his form last summer. He took a massive step forward from age three to four and this big striding colt will relish any added ground he gets.

Happy Saver #7: This chestnut horse is a lightly raced 5-year-old that was only a half length behind the talented and now retired Maxfield in his only race at Churchill Downs. He does come in here off a lengthy layoff but that doesn’t concern me for two reasons. One, its Todd Pletcher, and two, he won at Belmont off a seven month layoff in the past. He’s been training consistently for this return and will be sitting in a good spot on the outside just off the pace.

Happy Oaks and Derby Day!! Good luck to everyone this weekend!!

Top Picks

5: Olympiad

2: Weyburn

7: Happy Saver

Money Back Special: #5 Olympiad

Dave Weaver - Edgewood - Race 8, 3:03 PM ET

Of all the Graded Stakes races on the turf that trainer Chad Brown has conquered in his storied career, the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs has eluded him. This year, the odds are in his favor, as he will be sending out the three morning-line favorites. At 1 1/16 miles on the turf, it goes as race eight on a 13-race program highlighted by the Grade-1 Longines Kentucky Oaks.

Of the three Chad Brown fillies, I am most interested in #3 McKulick. As a two-year-old, she won her career debut in scintillating style, sweeping past the field on the outside with a furious rush. In her next start, in the Grade 2 Ms. Grillo, she drew an unfortunate outside post position and had a wide trip from the beginning. She ran on to be a belated third as the heavy favorite and was rested for the remainder of the season. This is her first start as a three-year-old and I can envision a better and stronger filly this time around. She gets Flavien Prat in the irons today and he may be able to take advantage of a paceless bunch and put her on or near the lead. #5 Dolce Zel is another Chad Brown entrant who has sky-is-the-limit ability. She won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks in her U.S. debut before finishing a solid second in her most recent start at Keeneland behind the heavy 3/5 favorite Spendarella in the Appalachian Stakes. The true X-Factor in this race is #10 Dream Lith. She is a Grade 2 winner on the dirt, taking the Golden Rod at this distance last year on the main track here at Churchill Downs. If she handles the turf today, she could be the surprise package of this bunch.

Good Luck and make it a great day!

Top Picks:

3: McKulick

5: Dolce Zel

10: Dream Lith

Money Back Special: #5 Dolce Zel

Scott Hazelton - Eight Belles - Race 9, 4:04 PM ET

The Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes is a race for straight three-year-old fillies that always brings together a strong group of runners on Kentucky Oaks day. You've got a good blend of invaders from all over the country including horses that have recently run at Keeneland, on the West Coast at Santa Anita and also a filly that comes in off of a career best performance down at Oaklawn Park. 7 Furlongs makes it a bit more of a challenge for these runners but there's plenty of seasoning for most of them minus one runner who comes into this race off of just one run which was an impressive victory down at Oaklawn.

#8 Matareya is my top selection and will likely be the favorite for this race. She has run two giant races this season including a victory in late February at the Fair Grounds where she ran 3/4 of a mile in a blazing 1:08 4/5. She followed that up with a dominant performance at Keeneland a month ago in the Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes winning the race by 8 1/2 lengths. Show maintained position close to the pace and draw off from this group, I think she's a clear standout in this race. This filly looks like she could be one of the best female sprinters in the country and this is just another step towards that affirmation.

#3 Marissa’s Lady has won five of her six races and has the pedigree to handle this distance. She comes off of a campaign on the synthetic track at Turfway Park where she ran some big races. But the speed figures suggest she's even better on a dirt surface which she will get today. That's gonna have to be the key to her being better than the favorite in this race but you cannot ignore this runner’s consistency. And don't be surprised or worried if she's a bigger price.

#2 Pretty Birdie took a big step forward with her most recent performance down at Oaklawn Park against stakes company. She ran 6 furlongs in 1:09 and will try to utilize her early speed to run away from this field would be my guess because all of her races that she has won have come in gate to wire fashion. The seven furlongs will be a question but don’t be surprised if she has the lead midway down the stretch and holds on for a piece of it in the top three. Also if she's able to break sharp as she does when she's at her best perhaps she can get over to the rail which has been so live at Churchill Downs this week. She needs a golden rail to ride to victory.

If you're looking for a longshot possibility watch out for the number 10 horse Sweet Dani Girl. The cut back and distance for her should be a plus and she'll be trying to chase him late and she comes out of a very tough race down at Gulfstream Park two months ago.

Top Picks:

8: Matareya

3: Marissa’s Lady

2: Pretty Birdie

Money Back Special: #3 Marissa’s Lady

Ken Rudulph - Turf Sprint - Race 10, 4:51 PM ET

I love turf racing. There is more strategy involved with the riders, more finesse in the early stages, and then manic and methodical energy in the stretch. No matter where they are I always feel like my horse has a chance in a turf race. The Kentucky Oaks Friday card with the Twin Spires Turf Sprint is ripe for a price. The race has been run here for decades starting in 1995 at a distance of 5 furlongs. Extended to 5.5 furlongs in 2019, with winner World of Trouble controlling a slow pace while cruising to a front-end victory as the favorite. In 2020, when it was moved to September due to the pandemic, Diamond Oops came from the back of the pack to win. The 2021 edition also featured a deep closer with a winning move as Fast Boat jetted past 8 horses in the stretch to score.

13 runners are set to sprint the 5.5 furlongs on the Churchill turf this year, including 2020 winner Diamond Oops. Pace will be contested throughout with Arrest Me Red and Just Might breaking together for the lead. Chasing Artie will also be quick from the gate with Johnny Unleashed, who at 70-1 ran a monster race by chasing Golden Pal around in vain in the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland, pressing right behind the leading pack. Caraval will be right next to Johnny Unleashed with the rest of the field trailing behind. This should ensure a decent pace to set it up for the presser and closers.

This is where things get really dicey because your proven closers like Diamond Oops and Gear Jockey will be far back. The Lir Jet, who ran down Golden Pal at Royal Ascot 2 years ago, has not won a turf sprint since. His recent victory at 6.5 on the undulating turf at Kentucky Downs is closer to a mile on turf than this 5.5 sprint. I don’t have much excitement for Gregorian Chant or Pyron in here even though they are both proven deep closers that will be a huge price.

So, I will be going with the horse that can get position early without needing the lead and can kick home in the stretch. I will be going with CHASING ARTIE from off of the pace. There should be something to run at here. CHASING ARTIE is versatile in every way. If they go slow he can be right there pressing, if they run too fast he can settle and make the run to the wire. 20-1 on the ML is perfect for me. He has raced and won on firm, yielding, and, good turf courses proving that he can handle any footing. He will probably take some action but we will still get 15-1 post time on this runner. Even with plenty of rain in the forecast on Oaks Friday to soften up the turf I still think CHASING ARTIE is in a good spot. Let’s get nuts!! I’ve got $25 to win.

Good luck and enjoy!!

Top Pick:

4: Chasing Artie

Money Back Special: #4 Chasing Artie

Christina Blacker - Kentucky Oaks - Race 11, 5:51 PM ET

Without a doubt this is one of the most exciting Oaks fields we have had in recent memory. We have the Eclipse Award winning two-year-old champion, three undefeated fillies and a filly that nearly beat the boys in Arkansas all as part of a full gate of 14.

I wish I could tell you I was picking against the favorite but #4 Nest is just too good. She is nearly undefeated, already proven at the distance and displayed her versatility in her last race at Keeneland. Nest was special from the beginning, having won at the mile and a sixteenth distance in her career debut at Belmont Park. Her connections were forced to cut back in distance for her subsequent start which is very unorthodox and most likely contributed to her only defeat. The full sister to G1 winner Idol then took the Demoiselle at the Oaks distance of a mile and an eight to round out her two-year-old season. Nest has improved at the age of three and this improvement is most clearly noted by her victory in the Ashland at Keeneland last on April eighth. She was closer to the pace given the short stretch configuration and ultra-responsive to jockey Irad Ortiz’s commands. She also produced a turf-like acceleration in the stretch which is something you rarely see on the dirt. She earned her fastest Thorograph speed figure for the performance and overall that number is one of the fastest of the field. Nest should create a good trip for herself from just off the pace and will be able to get the jump turning for home on some of her rivals. The daughter of Curlin has the chance to contribute to her sires 23% win rate in dirt graded stakes at this distance with female offspring. Nest will be my top selection.

The undefeated #10 Kathleen O is also a formidable opponent and in fact holds the best Thorograph figure of the field. She took a significant step forward in her first race around two turns which is consistent with the offspring of Airdrie stallion Upstart’s progeny who continue to impress as the distances progress. Kathleen O may find herself very far back off the pace however, so for that reason I will use her underneath in my wagers.

I also give a big chance to #1 Secret Oath. Secret Oath exits two very poor trips and receives a significant rider upgrade with the presence of Luis Saez for the Oaks. Unfortunately, she drew the rail so he will have his work cut out for him. Secret Oath was boxed in and race ridden for about a quarter of a mile in the Honeybee before boldly diving to the rail and drawing clear to win by nearly eight lengths. She was the victim of an even worse trip in the Arkansas Derby against males and still fought valiantly to finish third. She has had five weeks rest to recover from those races and hopefully can produce another top effort. However, she has quite a bit of time between her recent morning workouts and the combination of that factor and the rail draw is what led me to go elsewhere for the top selection.

I will be playing against #7 Echo Zulu. While she was a brilliant two-year-old and her campaign resulted in a Breeders Cup win and a championship, however, I don’t think she has improved at the age of three. In fact, all her numbers were the same throughout her two-year-old season and the Thorograph figure she earned in her three year old return to the races was actually slower than her 2021 numbers. Echo Zulu was a precocious youngster but the class seems to have caught up with her now. Additionally, the Oaks distance is a bit of a concern for the more compactly build daughter of Gun Runner. She will most likely be on the lead and fortunately for her there doesn’t figure to be a fast pace in the Oaks but I’m still not confident that she can hold off the likes of Nest and Kathleen O even if she does set slow early fractions.

Lastly, #13 Shahama is worth a mention as a live longshot. She has been extremely impressive in her local training this week at Churchill Downs and is also undefeated. A closer look at her pedigree reveals that she is a half sister to Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky and her dam produces 26% dirt route winners overall. She runs for the first time under the tutelage of trainer Todd Pletcher and stands to move forward in his program.

Good luck in the 148th Kentucky Oaks!

Top Picks:

4: Nest

10: Kathleen O.

1: Secret Oath

13: Shahama

Money Back Special: #1 Secret Oath