2024 Preakness Stakes Picks

By TVG Staff
Updated May 17, 2024

The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes happens at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, May 18. The Preakness is the flagship horse race at the Baltimore track, and one of ten stakes races on the day. The field will run 1 3/16 miles for a $2 million purse, up from the base of $1.5 million in previous years.

Betting the 2024 Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Course offers a host of wager types on this race, although, as is usual in the horse racing world, it is to be expected that the majority of wagers will be win bets—i.e., “betting on the nose.”

While win, place, and show bets will be as popular as always on May 18, this is a very competitive race, much like the Derby, and as such, there will be a great chance to get involved in the exotics. Those exotic wagers include exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers on the Preakness Stakes alone, as well as multi-race wagers that stretch across the stakes-laden Preakness day card.

Whether you’re new to horse racing betting or a seasoned handicapper, once you have your picks, the 2024 Preakness Stakes odds become important as you want to get value for money. There are plenty of variables to get your head around, but that’s why we’re here!

Picks for 2024 Preakness Stakes

Choosing among the Preakness Stakes contenders requires considering many horse racing factors such as their prep race form, their distance pedigrees, their running styles, and the record their connections have in previous editions of the race.

Compared to the Kentucky Derby, handicapping the Preakness Stakes is a little more like handicapping a normal race since you don’t know the likely full field many weeks in advance as you do for the Derby. However, most of the Preakness horses have been running in Kentucky Derby prep races, meaning the field is full of classy horses, and some of that prep work for handicapping the Kentucky Derby comes in handy when planning your Preakness Stakes betting, too.

Preakness Stakes Best Bet

Tuscan Gold is the best bet in the 2024 Preakness Stakes. Though he cedes experience to everyone else in the field, no trainer has been as good at getting a lightly-raced horse ready for the Preakness as Chad Brown. He won the Preakness in 2017 with Cloud Computing and the 2022 Preakness with Early Voting. Both of them did so in their fourth career start, which is where Tuscan Gold comes in.

It is true, both Cloud Computing and Early Voting had enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, while Tuscan Gold did not. But, his pair of Preakness winners came to the Preakness through New York preps, while Tuscan Gold’s stakes try came third behind Sierra Leone and Honor Marie in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Tuscan Gold comes into the race with a better recent strength of schedule than either of Brown’s past Preakness Stakes winners.

Tuscan Gold also has an appealing running style for the Preakness. Horses with some tactical speed tend to do well going 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico. Though Tuscan Gold won’t be battling on the pace, he has the tactical ability to track in close range, just like he did in the Louisiana Derby under Tyler Gaffalione, who returns to the irons. And, he should be able to handle it if some rain falls: sire Medaglia d’Oro produces 16% mud winners, and dam Valadorna is a Curlin mare who romped in the slop during her racing career.

Preakness Stakes Favorites

With the scratch of Muth on Wednesday morning, favoritism will almost certainly shift to the Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan. He has not been the most consistent horse—but when he’s good, he’s good. His victory in the Kentucky Derby not only showed classic stamina and late-stage grit, but also the ability to run against top horses over a fast track. However, his most brilliant effort to date may have come in the Southwest Stakes, which he won by eight lengths over Just Steel.

The weather may make the difference for how bettable Mystik Dan is in the Preakness Stakes. If the track turns up wet, it would be folly to leave him out of wagers given how beautifully he skipped over the slop in the Southwest. However, if the track turns up dry? He stands to be an underlay as the favorite, between the defection of a speed horse and the fact that he turned up flat when Kenny McPeek wheeled him back in two weeks last year.

Another horse likely to take money is Imagination, the only one remaining from the Bob Baffert barn after the defection of Muth. He should be forward, and the scratch of Muth only helps because he will have a bit less to contend with. Depending on how short his price goes, he may end up being an underlay since he is far less class-proven than his scratched stablemate. But, on the other hand…many people questioned the class of National Treasure, who Baffert brought to the Preakness last year, and he ended up using good old-fashioned California speed to score gate to wire.

Preakness Stakes Exotics Horses

Catching Freedom was a late addition to this year’s Preakness Stakes contenders, only put under consideration for the race the Sunday before after Brad Cox noticed how well he was coming out of the Kentucky Derby. The distance of the Preakness certainly suits this son of Constitution: he won the Louisiana Derby (G2) two starts back over 1 3/16 miles, after all.

The best thing about Catching Freedom is his consistency: he has only won three times in six starts, but he has run well and closed to make up ground in every single start. Though there isn’t likely to be a pace collapse in the Preakness, since none of the runners is one-way speed, it should be at least honest with runners like Imagination, Seize the Grey, and Just Steel all preferring to be forward. With that, he should at least get an honest pace and be able to run on for a piece of the exotics.

Just Steel, one of the longer shots in the field, has a chance to bounce back from his 17th-place finish in the Run for the Roses. That day, he got caught in a pace battle early and weakened late. However, his better style is stalking the pace, not disputing it.

Just Steel is reunited with Joel Rosario for the Preakness Stakes: not only a more experienced jockey in general than Kentucky Derby rider Keith Asmussen, but also the jockey aboard for both of Just Steel’s career wins. He worked a stalking trip each of those times, and if he can this time, he can acquit himself well for D. Wayne Lukas, who has one of the best Preakness Stakes records ever with six wins.

Handicapping Basics

If you want to start picking your own horses in the Preakness Stakes, the prep races, or all year long, you should become familiar with some of the basics of handicapping.

The Preakness Stakes does not give horses a weight handicap based on their form: all colts and geldings carry 126 pounds, and all fillies carry 121 pounds, no matter what races they have won in the past. However, with a field of up to 14 top horses who have been trained to peak at the Triple Crown season, handicapping the Preakness requires assessing their current form, finding out about their form cycles, figuring out whether the Preakness is where they will hit that hoped-for peak, and telling if that peak will be good enough to win.

Consider these factors when looking at the 2024 Preakness Stakes field and making your picks:

Form and Speed Ratings

Both form and speed ratings matter when handicapping horse racing. Coming into the Preakness Stakes, which covers 1 3/16 miles, you may have both form and speed information to start making a judgment about whether they will be able to handle the Preakness well. After all, some of the horses have covered 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby, or covered the exact Preakness Stakes distance in either the Louisiana Derby (G2) or the UAE Derby (G2). Even if they have not, judging form can help you glean clues about how well they are doing as speeds have stretched out.

Speed figures can be found in many products both online and in print, as can current form. Check out the horse’s current racing form; what rating does each horse have? When did they achieve it? Are they lightly raced and look like they are improving? What have the horses they have beaten achieved subsequently? For horses who raced during Kentucky Derby weekend, how well have they handled returning from short layoffs? These are all crucial questions when trying to find the Preakness winner.

Post Positions

The impact of post positions depends on the size of the field for the Preakness. Some years the Preakness draws a small field, making post positions less crucial. However, if the 2024 Preakness Stakes approaches or reaches the 14-horse limit, some posts can become bad. Those on the inner (low numbers) can get caught in traffic while those out wide give away ground. In a field of nine, as there was in 2023, post positions are less significant than they are in the Kentucky Derby, especially since none of the real speed horses drew far-inside or far-outside posts.

This is a major reason it is good to keep an open mind about your picks until the race has been drawn. A horse with strong form may draw a disastrous post, and it pays to think critically about how much you think a bad post affects their chances to win.

How to Pick Based on Breeding

Since some of the 2024 Preakness Stakes horses have not gone 1 3/16 miles yet, and even the ones who have gone that far have had limited chances to do so, pedigree can provide useful information to connect the dots. It’s all in the blood with Thoroughbreds, so look out for those whose sires and grandsires have run well in Triple Crown races in their own careers, or those that seem to want more “ground” based on their pedigrees.

It can also pay off to look at their dams (their mothers), as well as the siblings of these Derby horses. If their siblings have good form over the Preakness distance or even longer, it is a positive sign that the final furlong will not do them in.

Stick with TVG for Your 2024 Preakness Stakes Picks

You can watch and wager with TVG as we keep you informed on all things Preakness.

Take a look at the latest Preakness Stakes odds to see what sort of value you can get for your wagers, and check back regularly for more updates on this huge Maryland event.